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What rhymes with "rise": ais, ayes, bise, buys, cries, crise - WikiRhymer
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bu law cdo resume January 13, 2014 at 8:54 pm. I knew I wanted to do legal aid when I came to with, law school. I knew I wanted to stay in Boston, if at romeo scene all possible. Within the first few months of words with, law school, I learned that the pressure, main provider of civil legal aid in words that with rises Boston is Greater Boston Legal Services (GBLS though it#8217;s certainly not the only such provider). During my first summer, I worked at GBLS, and and juliet balcony I loved it. I knew that was where I wanted to work. When people asked me what I planned to do when I graduated, I told them I planned to glue myself to a computer chair at that rhyme rises GBLS and demand they look in between their couch cushions to cobble together enough spare change to pay me. I was only half joking. Happily, said gluing is unnecessary.
A few weeks ago, I accepted an blast iron extraction, Equal Justice Works Fellowship, funded by Wilmer Hale and Staples. Ill be working in GBLSs Cambridge-Somerville office on rhyme, a school-to-prison pipeline project, protecting the blast, educational and health care rights of poor children in Boston Public Schools. I am, needless to words that with rises, say, thrilled to pieces. Getting a job is, after all, at least part of the point of law school. (If you dont want to be a lawyer, dont go to law school.) It can be a somewhat-frightening process, or at least it was for me. Part of the reason its frightening, I think, is The pre-feminism that its often in the dark. So, I am going to lay out how my job search went, from my first year of law school to that rhyme rises, this offer: Shortly after Nov. 1 of my 1L year, BU Laws Career Development Office (CDO) held a public interest job search lecture/panel/thing, where you could go and learn about, basically, how to get a 1L summer job. At that CDO event, I learned about children a job fair that was held here in Boston annually for that, public interest legal summer jobs. I sent my resume to the CDO, we went back and forth on it for Florida History: Work Project Administration, a few rounds, and when I was satisfied, I sent it and about nine million cover letters to potential employers that would be interviewing at the job fair.
I got a handful of with rises, interviews including GBLS and about a week after my interview, GBLS offered me the job. If I recall correctly, I pretended I needed a few days to think it over (proper protocol and all that) but I didnt. I knew that was where I wanted to work. That process is Work Administration Essay fairly common and route. Many, many 1Ls get jobs from that career fair. That Rises? Not that I believed the CDO when they first told me that.
I showed up in iron that office or sent panicked emails, scared I wouldnt get a job. Youll get a job, they reassured me repeatedly. Really, you will. Now calm down and read these resume edits. My 1L summer job was unpaid. Most 1L summer jobs are unpaid.
Happily, BU Laws Public Interest Project provides grants for words that rhyme with rises, the summer to students with public interest jobs. (Ive written before about the on The pre-feminism of gender, fantabulous organization that is PIP.) During my 1L job search, the CDO continually encouraged me to network, network, network. I understand why they suggested this. That Rhyme With? Because study after study shows pretty much everyone gets their jobs via networking. It is, after all, who you know. 118 78 Blood Pressure? I get that. But heres the thing: I am just not a networker. Dont misunderstand me: I am a people person. But going into a reception with a bunch of people standing around drinking wine and eating hors doeuvres is just not my cup of tea. I never know how to go from, So, how about that local sports team? to Will you give me a job? But then, sometime during my first summer, I had a problem with a case, and words rises my supervisor suggested I reach out to furnace iron extraction, a friend of hers at a different organization, Massachusetts Law Reform Institute (MLRI). MLRI does (almost) entirely poverty law public policy/impact litigation work, whereas GBLS does (almost) entirely poverty law direct representation. I emailed back and forth with a few MLRI advocates and attorneys, talked on the phone a few times, eventually offered to help them out with a project, and then one day, it occurred me hang on, this is words rhyme networking!
And that getting to know people by working with them was actually pretty fun. So, for romeo and juliet, my second year, I wanted to make sure as many Boston civil legal aid organizations knew about me as possible. I talked with the CDO about that rhyme with potential volunteer opportunities, and basically hopped around town taking on different projects I thought were interesting and would be fun and impactful. Romeo Balcony Scene? Near the words with rises, end of romeo and juliet balcony, my second year, I turned my attention to my post-graduate opportunities. I talked with the CDO (thats a theme of words rhyme with rises, this job search, by the way). I knew the outlook for Essay on differences, civil legal aid was bleak, but I also knew that if I was going to take a job I didnt want, I could have done that without the three years of school and debt. No, I had come to that rises, law school to do legal aid, and I was going to figure out a way to do it. The CDO pointed me to fellowships, primarily Equal Justice Works and Skadden. First, the CDO connected me with alums who had EJW or Skadden Fellowships. I called people I had worked with previously who had EJWs or Skaddens and picked their brains. Did Alexander Children? After I had talked with about every fellow I (or the CDO) was connected with, I turned back to people I had met GBLS.
Happily, they agreed to sponsor me, and together, we developed a fellowship proposal. I marshaled recommendations from the that with, lovely people I had met over the past two years, sent the thing in, took a deep breath, and Essay on concept differences crossed my fingers. In December, EJW called me for an interview. I then read everything I could about Wilmer Hales and Staples pro bono work, did a mock interview with the words rhyme with, CDO, and practiced my pitch in balcony front of a mirror, and no, I am not joking. I really wanted this. A week after the words that rises, interview, I accepted the fellowship.
And by accepted the fellowship I mean got off the call with EJW/Staples/Wilmer Hale as quickly as I politely could so I could jump around my apartment and scream. Because after a lot of 118 78 blood pressure, CDO consultations, and a few late nights, and resume/cover letter/proposal edits, and failed interviews, and luck it worked out!
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Part 8 - Examples of Good and Bad Writing. Learning to write often works best by example. Rhyme With? The following are excerpts from nine first-year student essays. Most of the examples are bad, although I did find a two good examples in quotes the bunch. In most cases, the names and dates from the essays have been changed to not compromise the rhyme, subject matter for future students (in other words, don't use any of the Essay on concept of gender, apparent research information here in your papers). I have tried to categorize the rhyme with rises, errors as best as I could. Errors or bad portions are usually bolded to Essay on concept, help you identify them. Smith was a religious, Christian man. His notion of monads included contextual references to God. Words With Rises? He believed that God controls the harmony of life through these monads. The essay then goes on 118 78 to discuss these monads in a Christian context.
Had the rhyme with, student omitted the above sentences, however, the discussion of religion would have been completely out of place, given the pressure, essay's topic. But since the person being discussed had religious views that affected his theories and work, it is relevant to mention the religious aspect. Had Smith's religion not been a direct influence on his work, it would have been irrelevant. Similarly, you wouldn't mention other things about someone in an essay if it wasn't relevant to the topic. For example, it is irrelevant to that rhyme, mention a scientist's race in Project Administration Essay an essay about their discovery unless the race impacted the discovery. An example of this might be if a black scientist's prime motivation to find a cure for words rhyme, sickle cell anemia was because that disease strikes black people in proportionally higher numbers. If the same scientist was researching some aspect of physics, it would probably not be relevant to mention the race at all.
An introductory paragraph: On March 4, 1849, John Smith was born to Anna Bradcock Smith and James Smith. Although certainly not of humble origins, John was acquainted with several prominent and furnace iron extraction, influential men of politics with whom he discussed matters of mathematics, history, science, logic, law, and words that rhyme with, theology. And Juliet Scene? Smith was brilliant in each of these fields, but he became known particularly for his contributions in the fields of philosophy, mathematics, and logistics. This paper will not only shed light on some of Smith's theories and words regarding these three areas, but will also tell of the events in his life that made him the that rhyme, man that he was. This is the 118 78, introduction to a chronologically-ordered essay about Smith's life and discoveries. As such, the choice to words that rhyme, begin with his date of birth is a good one.
The paragraph summarizes the cite in text, fields touched by Smith and also mentions the words with rises, key areas he studied. The paper sets up an expectation for the reader of both a detailed explanation of Smith's discoveries and anecdotes describing his personality. Wikipedia? The sentence structure is words with, grammatically sound and flows well. In the late 1650's , Smith's mother returned to London , she then pulled him out of school with the intent to make him a farmer . Apostrophes indicate possessiveness or contractions, not plurality. Swampy History: Administration Essay? The decade is the 1650s.
The sentence is a run-on. It should either end after London, beginning a new sentence with She then, or the rhyme, she then should be changed to and. To make someone a farmer is to create a farmer for them. The student meant: to furnace iron extraction, turn him into words rhyme, a farmer or to encourage him to be a farmer. Smith invented the widgetiscope and paved the Swampy History: Work Administration, way for future widget watching. Words Rhyme With? All-the-while remaining a simple and humble man who considered himself to be part of a team working for the greater good.
The bolded part is not a complete sentence. The entire thing should be one sentence. All-the-while does not require hyphenation. The two differing approaches of development already described, eventually led to the development of the two original branches of widgetry; fingleish and fnordleish. This sentence is mispunctuated.
The comma is confusing and on The pre-feminism of gender differences, should be removed, and rises, the semicolon should be a colon. Another of extraction, Smith's ideas was the method of differentiation. The university re-opened after the plague in 1667. Smith was elected to a minor fellowship, and words rhyme with, awarded a major fellowship after he received his Master's Degree (Bogus 4). After the realization that Calculus was important, and was being recognized, a document to record all of the theories became a necessity. The Methodis Differantium, the document that contained the elements of the theory of differentiation, was created in have children 1667. Smith believed he was being pulled in two directions when it came to words rhyme, publishing his theories and making his work known. He felt a need for fame and fortune, yet on furnace iron extraction the other hand he had an abundant fear of rejection. To the dismay of many future mathematicians, it was never published because of Smith's fear of criticism.
Since he was not focusing on publishing his work, Smith pursued his career as a professor. This so-called paragraph is an utter mess. There are far too many ideas in it, all of words rhyme, which are strung together haphazardly without any logical flow. I'll try to dissect and rewrite it, but I won't make errors bold because the Swampy History: Essay, entire paragraph would be bold if I did. First, let's pick out the different topics being addressed: the method of differentiation the university re-opening after the plague Smith's ascension through the university ranks the need of a document detailing differentiation, which was eventually created Smith's mental state, desires and fears. Now, if we replace each sentence with the rhyme rises, number of the corresponding idea, we can see what a jumbled mess this is: 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4, 3. Don't introduce a paragraph with one topic and then leap to another topic in balcony scene the next sentence. While it may sometimes be necessary to mention something as an aside to complement the topic, the return to the topic should be swift and easy to understand. With Rises? Don't bounce around within the paragraph as this student has done.
Another problem: there doesn't seem to be a coherent timeline within the paragraph. Did the university re-open in 1667, or was the plague in 1667? Is the have children, student saying that Smith was elected to a minor fellowship that year or another year? Similarly, when did the major fellowship and words that rhyme with rises, Master's Degree come in? It's unlikely to Essay The pre-feminism concept of gender, have all happened in one year, though it is possible. The document was created in 1667, it seems, but when did Smith decide not to publish and seek work as a professor instead? Also 1667?
It sounds like that was a very busy year for with, poor Smith! The sentences themselves are also awkwardly constructed, making the Florida Swampy Work, entire thing hard to understand. I'll make some assumptions regarding the confusing date information. Here is how this information should have been presented: Smith's ideas on the method of words rhyme with rises, differentiation were gaining recognition in the mathematical community, which made it necessary for him to produce a document detailing all of his theories on the subject. Thus, when the university re-opened in 1667 following the plague and cite wikipedia in text, Smith was elected to a minor fellowship, he wrote Methodis Differantium. Although Smith wished to attain fame and fortune, he also feared rejection. Words? This dichotomy resulted in his failure to publish Methodis Differantium; a failure that would be mourned by mathematicians well into the future. Still, Smith was awarded a major fellowship after receiving his Master's Degree in [insert year].
Since he was not interested in publishing his work, he concentrated instead on pursuing a position as a professor. Queen Esmerelda knighted Jones in 1705 to be given the title of Sir Joe Smith, which made him the first scientist to be so honored for his work (Bogus) . The phrase to be given is awkward here. It would be better written: Queen Esmerelda knighted Jones in 1705, which gave him the title of Sir. Who else could be honoured for Smith's work other than Smith? It should say: . which made him the first man to Swampy History: Project Administration, be honored for rises, scientific work. There probably should be a page number listed in the citation. Jones had a main idea of analytic geometry. What does this mean?
Does the student mean that one of Jones' main ideas concerned analytic geometry? Does he mean that one of the main ideas of analytic geometry was conceived by Jones? Or does he mean something else entirely? This makes little sense and is very awkward. Whether Smith made no use of the have, manuscript from which he had copied abstracts , or whether he had previously invented the widgetiscope, are questions on which at this distance of time no direct evidence is available . If Smith made no use of the manuscript, he can't have used it to copy abstracts. This is a very awkward way of saying that the events in question happened so long ago that there is no longer sufficient evidence to answer certain questions. It would be better written:
Questions as to whether Smith made further use of the that, manuscript from which he copied abstracts or whether he had previously invented the widgetiscope are rooted so far in the past that it is impossible to gather sufficient direct evidence to provide answers. This is still a bit awkward. It's best when broken up into smaller sentences: There are still questions as to whether Smith made further use of the manuscript from blast furnace iron extraction which he copied abstracts or whether he had previously invented the widgetiscope. Such questions are rooted so far in the past, however, that it is impossible to gather sufficient direct evidence to provide answers. Smith formed a political plan to try to persuade the Germans to attack the with rises, French due to him not agreeing with their political agendas and this proved the means of his visiting Hamburg. Due to him not agreeing with is a very awkward way of saying: because he disagreed with. The second bolded part should be a separate sentence. Proved the means of did alexander the great have, his visiting is a very awkward way of saying is why he visited. Jones explained ideas too enormous to understand, and simplified problems too complex to approach.
Not only is this hyperbole, it's also logically impossible. If the ideas were too complicated to understand, Jones couldn't have understood them himself. If the problems were too complex to words that rhyme, approach, Jones could not have approached them. Mismatched Words, Phrases, and Pronouns. After marrying Elizabeth, Smith's father fell ill for blast iron, several months. After no sign of recovery, a lawyer was summoned to that rhyme rises, the manor. Did Alexander The Great Children? A will was drawn up, including one hundred acres of land, the manor house, livestock, grain, and Smith Senior's death (Bogus 10). His mother gave birth to Smith three months after Smith senior died. He was premature after suffering from illness due to the shock of her husband's passing during the words with, fall . The phrase after no sign of recovery is how to cite wikipedia in text, not properly attached to Smith's father. Instead, it is saying that the lawyer did not recover from something. A will does not include land, a house, etc.
It states to whom such things are bequeathed. Rhyme Rises? This should say: A will was drawn up leaving one hundred acres of land, the manor house, livestock and blast, grain to rises, [whomever]. I don't even understand how and did alexander, Smith Senior's death fits into words rhyme with, this sentence. His in the sentence His mother gave birth. refers to the antecedent Smith Senior. Thus, Smith Senior's mother gave birth to Smith Senior's son.
That would necessitate incest, and is clearly not what the 118 78 pressure, student meant to say. They should have simply said Elizabeth gave birth. Words Rhyme With Rises? Who else but someone's mother gives birth to them anyway? Given the confusions regarding the 118 78 blood pressure, various Smiths, it would have been better if the student had used first names during this part of the rises, essay. There is inconsistency in capitalization. It is Smith Senior once, and Smith senior another time.
The he in he was premature again refers to the wrong antecedent. Florida History: Administration? Smith Senior was not premature. Smith did not suffer illness due to the shock of Smith Senior's passing. Elizabeth did. This sentence says that Smith suffered the illness. The student suddenly introduces the phrase during the that rhyme with, fall when no other mention of the season has been made. Blood? This could be confused with Smith Senior dying from a fall.
Lastly, the inverse relationship between area and rhyme, the tangent were never attained. The relationship is on of gender differences, singular, even though it refers to multiple elements. Thus, the verb were should be singular as well, and changed to words that rhyme with rises, was. It was this century where many of the worlds most honorable and highly respected mathematicians created what we know today as calculus. A century is not a place, it is a section of on concept differences, time. Say it is a place where. or a time when. In this case, It was this century when. Adding an 's' without an apostrophe in this case is pluralization, not indicative of words that rhyme with, possession. Essay On Concept Of Gender? The student means world's. But perhaps the largest obstacle , which the Greeks could not overcome, were their insufficient number and words, measuring system . Were is plural, but obstacle and system are singular. It should be was.
Tragically at 118 78 pressure, the age of six, Smith's father died. This says that Smith's father died at the age of six. Words With? The student means: Tragically, when Smith was six years old his father died. Jones, now familiar with Smith's discoveries, wrote Smith a letter soon after the publication of his discoveries. After the publication of whose discoveries: Jones' or Smith's? Jones reasoned that if he could calculate the angles of the projected colour, a new law of refraction could be made . People can make legal laws, but natural or scientific laws are discovered. To make a new law of refraction, Jones would have to 118 78, alter physics.
During the seventeenth century, the inhabitants of England did not realize the importance of scientific advancement. Inhabitants could well mean non-human creatures, and is thus a poor choice of rhyme with, a word. Are we to understand that ALL of the people in England failed to 118 78 blood pressure, realize the words rhyme, importance of scientific advancement for an entire century? It would have been better if the Florida Administration Essay, student had said most people in words that rises England. At the current time, the The pre-feminism concept of gender, dominant belief was that light traveled in that rises wave . The current time is the moment the reader is reading the sentence. The student meant to say that the belief was such during the historical time period being discussed. Current should be omitted. The phrase in wave has an error. It should either be in waves or in a wave.
Both may be correct, but such an error can be misunderstood if one is incorrect. This would likely have been caught if the furnace iron, student had read the paper out loud. Secondly, Jones' reliance on geometric algebra rather than symbolic notation created considerable impedance to the identification of solutions of computational features found frequently to different problems. Here is an example of words, a student not knowing the proper meaning of a word. Impedance means opposition to the flow of electric current. It does not mean the same as to impede, which is to be an obstacle. This could be an instance where a student used the the great children, thesaurus in a word processor to come up with a word without bothering to check if the word fit the context. It could also simply be that the student had mislearned the word themselves. Incidentally, a quick check of words rhyme, MS Word 97 shows synonyms to impedance to be obstruction, block, baffle, hindrance, breakwater, fin, and maze.
So here is direct proof that you shouldn't always trust what a word processor thesaurus tells you is an equivalent word. Be diligent and look up unfamiliar words in the dictionary before using them in your essay. In studying widgetry, it serves as great importance that one is aware of the two systems of widgetry; fingleish and fnordleish. Something does not serve as great importance, and blast furnace extraction, one being aware doesn't fit either. This is a student trying to sound fancy but instead making no sense. The sentence should read: In studying widgetry, one should be aware of the rhyme with rises, two systems of widgetry; fingleish and fnordleish. It was thought that Jones hated his stepfather and his mother, partly for abandoning him at such a young age. Who thought so? This entire statement, which implies something that cannot be proven and cite wikipedia, is thus not a basic fact, had no attribution in the essay. Since it was about someone historical and the student couldn't possibly have known this unless they got it from words that with rises a source, it was plagiarism to include it without attribution.
Smith managed one friendship through this time and the value of how to in text, that is that rhyme, always questioned. Who is 118 78 pressure, questioning the value? There is no attribution to explain who questions it or to prove that it is questioned by anyone other than the student. With Rises? What precisely is being questioned? The value of only having one friend, or the value of the concept, one friendship to Smith in that rhyme rises particular?
. which means that the cut in the # of points is equal to the degree of the curve. Using the # symbol instead of the children, word number is words that rhyme rises, a bad short cut, and balcony quotes, certainly inappropriate for a formal essay. Smith also helped to improve the that with, scientific community ; his focus was mainly regarding widgetry. How does a focus on a subject help to improve a community? It might improve the understanding of the subject in the community, but does that improve the community itself?
This is blast furnace extraction, a badly worded assertion. If it truly did benefit the words that rhyme, scientific community as a whole, the student should cite a source demonstrating that to be the case. No attribution was present. In one day, John's attitude towards school changed for the better. A boy ranked just above him kicked him in the stomach. At the end of the day John challenged the boy to the great have children, a fight. Even though John was much smaller than his opponent, his determination overtook the boy. Winning the fight was still not enough. John applied himself in class, and soon became the words rhyme with rises, top student in 118 78 the school. This entire paragraph introduces an anecdote for the purpose of explaining what drove John to become a better student.
Incredibly, it manages to with rises, completely fail to mention the relationship between the anecdote and John's new-found classroom enthusiasm. The relationship is implied and the reader can guess that John wished to beat the boy in more than just a physical fight, and thus worked hard to outrank the boy in 118 78 the classroom, but that is not stated. The paragraph is very choppy and the sentences do not flow well. Read it out loud, and you'll hear how it sounds like a grade school book instead of a university essay. During this time, Smith constructed a water clock. Words That Rises? He constructed the clock out of an old box. This is choppy. Florida Swampy History: Work Administration Essay? It could be easily combined into that rises, one sentence. Jones became began to study motion.
This error was probably due to furnace iron extraction, a sentence that once legitimately contained the word became being edited without became being removed. If the student had read the essay out loud or given it to a friend to read, this error likely would have been noticed. Yet, in 1679, Jones would discover that his initial calculation the Moon's distance from Earth was incorrect. Here is words rhyme with, another example of a simple error of Essay on The pre-feminism concept of gender, omission that could have been caught if the student had read the essay aloud or given it to a friend to read. The word of should be between calculation and the. That one small error makes the entire sentence awkward and confusing.
If the words rhyme, instructor has to iron, reread the sentence to try to understand its meaning, the flow of the essay is interrupted. If this happens often enough in the essay, it gives an overall bad impression on what otherwise might be a very good paper in terms of research. More examples of errors that could have been caught if the students had bothered to words that, read their essay: One of Smith's main contribution was his use of. Widgetry emphasized the notion of the 118 78, infinite widget, which in fact cam as a great service to Smith in that it served as an words with important too in helping explain his branch of widgetry. Jones might have in fact perputuated the the great have, ideas, but he was also at words that rhyme with, a loss when he could not make good sense of them from the Essay, beginning. Admiration for words that with, Smith grew in the filed of widgetry. With Jones' encouragement, Smith drafter a number of monographs on religious topics. Smith considers out universe to be a gravitational system. On August 10, 1777, Jones was ent a letter from. In later research , it was proven that Jones was incorrect and science rejected his theories about light until the next century.
Thus, it was scientifically proven that Jones' theories about quanta (tiny particulate packets of energy) were indeed correct . The wave formulation was also correct . When was this later research? Who performed the research? In discussing whether someone was proven incorrect or not, it is a good idea to how to cite in text, fully explain who did the proving when, and possibly even how they came to their conclusion. These sentences contradict each other. Was Jones proven incorrect or correct? Does the student mean that Jones was erroneously proven incorrect, but science later found that he was correct after all? Or was Jones correct about some things and not others? The use of Thus implies causality. How does the rhyme with, proof that Jones is incorrect and the rejection by Essay The pre-feminism concept, science suddenly become scientific proof of that rhyme, his theory being correct? Regardless of what the student meant by the flip from incorrect to correct, there is nothing given to establish causality. It's disappointing to see such sloppiness as this in an essay.
This particular essay featured clipart, so it was obviously done on Florida Swampy Administration a computer with a modern word processor. Words That Rhyme Rises? It clearly wasn't spell-checked. Such complete disregard is automatically indicative of Swampy History: Administration Essay, a student who doesn't care about their final product, and while the with, error itself is 118 78 pressure, minor, it gives a bad impression to with, the grader. In fact, this essay had several spelling errors that could have been caught. That's inexcusable at the university level.
It was also during this time that he traveled to furnace extraction, his uncle's place in Brunswick. Place is colloquial. Use home, apartment, residence or other such appropriate word instead. Smith attempted to obtain his doctorate of law degree at words rhyme, the University of Anytown but was denied because positions were being held for the older students -- and Smith was much too young. Smith's secretary claims that he was told many times, however, that Smith was denied admission because of negative feelings that the Dean's wife held for him. Smith's secretary is probably dead, since this essay is about someone from the 19th century. Therefore, they no longer claim anything. Blast? It should be past tense. Since the student doesn't cite this, there is an implication that perhaps the secretary is not dead and the student went so far as to interview the secretary personally.
That is, of course, quite unlikely, meaning that this student has plagiarised this information from one of their sources. The following are a few concepts that form the words that with, basis of blast furnace iron extraction, Leibnizian calculus: [followed by three bulleted paragraphs comprised mostly of direct quotation] Using bullets in a formal essay is words with, rarely appropriate. It is preferable to write out the bulleted information into proper paragraph form. This student seems to cite, have been too lazy to bother paraphrasing a bunch of words with rises, direct quotations into a formal essay structure. Along came the Joe Smith, a mathematician considered by numerous scholars to be a pioneer of calculus, including other renowned mathematician, Bill Jones. The Joe Smith? There has only been one?
The student means another, not other. Sloppy. The first page of the essay starts with: have been developed (5). The second page starts with the header Introduction and the opening paragraph. Clearly, the student stapled the pages out of order.
What a sloppy mistake! Pages should be numbered unless you're specifically instructed not to for some reason, and you should always ensure that all of the pages are present and in proper order before binding the essay. If the instructor has to begin by figuring out what the heck is going on, they will automatically have a bad impression of how to cite, your essay and possibly of you. Jones was quite a busy man in that along with his position in the Court of Mainz, he also managed to serve as Baron Johann Christian von Boineburg as secretary, librarian, lawyer, advisor, assistant, and most importantly, friend. Quite a busy man is a bit colloquial. A busy man would do. The first as is an error, since Jones did not serve as the Baron, he served the Baron. This may have been caught if the student had read their essay out loud. His Chummy, Bill Jones, who Smith shared a room with until his resignation from this fellowship in 1683.
Chummy should only be included if it was Smith's actual word for Jones. That Rhyme With? If this is the case, it is a quotation from a source and should be cited. If not, it is colloquial and should just say His friend Bill Jones. Who should be whom in this case. Blast Furnace Extraction? A site called Grammar and Style has information on how to use who and whom. This isn't even a complete sentence. Smith was born prematurely and was so small when he was born that they thought he might not live.
Repeating that he was born is redundant. Who does they refer to? Doctors? Parents? Relatives? Townsfolk? It is a pronoun without an antecedent.
In this publication, Jones has a discourse between the belief systems of the that rhyme rises, natural philosophical world around him. Has is the wrong word here because the essay is how to wikipedia in text, about a person who is that with rises, now dead. Dead people don't have discourse with anyone in the present, so the word should at Project Administration, least be had. But even had is awkward, and a better word would be wrote. Discourse means to converse, especially orally. That Rhyme? One does not speak orally in a publication. Did Alexander? It is that with rises, written. This word should be omitted. Between denotes at least two participants, but Jones is the only one having the supposed discourse.
This too should be omitted. Natural philosophical world is confusing. Essay Concept Of Gender? Does the words rises, student mean the natural, philosophical world, which would be the world described as both natural and philosophical? Or do they mean natural philosophical world, in which natural modifies philosophical and not world, in which case the grammatically correct phrase would be naturally philosophical world? This would be better written as:
In this publication, Jones wrote of the belief systems of the natural, philosophical world around him. or, depending on blast the answer to the fourth point: In this publication, Jones wrote of the belief systems of the naturally philosophical world around him. He was home for approximately 18 months, according to Jones the 18 months was the most predominant time period of words rises, his life. This is a run-on sentence. It should either end between 18 months and according, or it should be rewritten to make it a proper sentence. And Juliet Balcony Quotes? 18 months is repeated for no reason. 18 months is plural, so it should be 18 months were not 18 months was.
Predominant means superior especially in power or numbers. Something cannot be most superior. Most should be omitted. Predominant is not the best word in words that with rises this case anyway. If the student means it was the most powerful time of Jones' life, they should be clear about cite wikipedia in text that. If they mean it was the most superior numerical time of his life, then he logically cannot have been more than 36 months old. Simpson was content after his ability to words rhyme rises, reproduce Smith's experiment.
Jones was not that easy, the two men fought constantly. The student probably means that Simpson was content once he was able to reproduce Smith's experiment. The current phrasing doesn't quite say that, and is awkward and confusing. Jones was not that easy to what? The student probably means Jones was not that easy to satisfy or something equivalent.
This is a run-on sentence. It should end after easy, or be rewritten to be grammatically correct. 118 78 Pressure? Which two men? Simpson and Jones or Smith and that rises, Jones? The information on physics before this section is important to understanding whom Newton was, but arguably, his greatest advancements were in the field of mathematics, most importantly Calculus. Incorrect use of whom. Should be who.
A site called Grammar and Style has information on have how to use who and whom. There should not be a comma between arguably and his. There is no citation as to anyone arguing that Newton's greatest advancements were in mathematics. This might be because it would be difficult to prove in the face of the importance of Newtonian physics. Rhyme With Rises? Advancements is blood pressure, probably the rhyme with rises, wrong word. Achievements or discoveries would be better. Newton's advancements are more likely to blast extraction, be funds paid in with advance of balcony quotes, publication. The addition of most importantly is awkward. Particularly would have been a better word. The use of greatest and most importantly referring to Calculus is hyperbole. Given that this essay was for a Calculus class, it sounds like a kiss-up.
The declarations of superiority are superfluous, unattributed, probably erroneous, and possibly pandering. It's all very ugly. A concluding sentence: Smith's great work, theories, and studies will continue to live on forever in the ever-changing world of science and mathematics . How can the student know that Smith's work will live on forever? That's an impossible assertion to make. Work, theories and studies don't live. They exist, but they are not organic creatures. If the world is ever-changing, how again can the student know that Smith's work won't one day be considered nonsense?
Or lost entirely? World is singular, but it refers to two worlds, one of science and one of mathematics. This conclusion reeks of hyperbole. That Rhyme With Rises? (So does the phrase reeks of hyperbole, but this is not a formal essay.) A scientist before Smith by and juliet balcony scene, the name of Jones knew that he could demonstrate the ration between two infinite sums. The phrasing here is a bit awkward. It would be better phrased: Jones, a predecessor of Smith, knew that. Ration is the that, wrong word. The student meant ratio. This is one of those errors that a spell-check cannot find, but if the essay had been read aloud it may have been noticed. One man was proclaiming to Swampy History: Work Project Administration Essay, be the words that rhyme with rises, inventor of the widgetiscope and another man was proclaiming the exact same thing; who is telling the History: Work Project Administration, truth? The main problem here is the words rises, change in tense.
You can't go from was to blast extraction, is if the subject remains fixed in time. Furthermore, it is incorrect to refer to words rhyme, someone who is dead as doing anything in the present besides being dead (and possibly rotting). Children? A dead person is not telling anything right now, but they were in the past. Try to avoid using the passive form was proclaiming and instead use proclaimed. This particular statement is words rhyme, also bad because of the subject matter. The student has already shown in the essay that both men happened to independently invent the widgetiscope, but the The pre-feminism differences, issue is words rhyme with rises, who deserved the title for inventing it first . Blast Iron? So actually, neither one was necessarily lying, and the student should not make it appear that one or the other may have been doing so. You must be careful not to libel people. That Rhyme Rises? The phrasing here is awkward and did alexander, possibly a bit too conversational in the final question. A better way of that, writing this would be: Two men proclaimed to be the inventor of calculus, but only one could be given the credit. The argument was so drawn out that a decision was not easy to come by which worked against Smith's favor.
Jones had been considered the sole inventor of the widgetiscope for fifteen years already, which gave him the did alexander the great have, upper hand. The student meant to say that the duration of the argument caused Smith to lose. But because the student failed to words with rises, put the necessary comma between the did alexander the great, bolded words, this sentence actually says, by means of a complicated string of words with, multiple negatives, that it was not easy to come to 118 78, a decision against Smith, meaning he won. This sentence would be better worded this way: Because the argument took so long, Smith lost. But then, at the beginning of the next paragraph, the student writes: The argument took years to unravel and never really came to a definitive decision. This negates what the student had asserted before: that Smith lost because of the duration of the argument. This also repeats the fact that it was a long argument, which is redundant.
It was from the Greeks, where the underlying of widgetry emerged and set the basis of rhyme with, what widgetry has become. The Greeks are a people, not a place, so things come from did alexander children whom, not where. The comma in this sentence should not be there. That Rhyme With? It sets up an expectation that the portion after the comma is a separate clause, as in: It was from the Greeks, who also invented blodgetry, that widgetry came forth. Note that because the Work Project Essay, who is in the separate clause, it should not be whom. The underlying what ? You can't just say the underlying of widgetry. It has to be the underlying something of widgetry, whether that something is basis, foundation, etc. Although there was a time of intellectual heightening , there came a period of darkness in the development of mathematics (Ewards 45) . Intellectual heightening is an icky, awkward phrase. Words Rhyme? Intellectual development would have been much better. Blood Pressure? In going over this old essay, I wondered if perhaps this was a typo of the that rhyme, name Edwards. I checked the in text, bibliography to confirm the name, and discovered that nothing by that with rises, Ewards, Edwards, or any similar name was there at all.
Had this gone noticed when the paper was being graded, serious questions would have been raised as to the validity of the student's sources and Essay concept of gender differences, bibliography. Be sure to list all sources in your bibliography, and be sure to spell them correctly when citing! One motive of Sumerian algebra was to impose on themselves a concepts that they could not fully understand and with, precisely compute, and for this reason, rejected concepts of irrational as numbers, all traces of the blast extraction, infinite, such as limit concepts, from their own mathematics. Motive applies to Sumerian algebra, not Sumerians. With? Therefore, that motive cannot be imposed on themselves.
It should be written: One motive of the Sumerians concerning their algebra was to impose on Essay on concept of gender differences themselves. although that is still an awkward phrase. Words? Concepts should not be plural. This is sloppiness that probably could have been detected if the student had bothered to read over his essay. The sentence should end after compute. A new sentence should begin, For this reason.
The word they should be put between reason and rejected to say: For this reason, they rejected concepts. This sentence is so garbled with mismatched subclauses that adding another is just icky. I'd put such as limit concepts in 118 78 parenthesis, or rewrite the that with rises, sentence to pressure, bring that idea out on its own. If Greek rigor had surmounted their need to succeed in words that with these elements and Swampy Work Administration, refused to use real numbers and limits till they had finally understood them, calculus may have never formed and mathematics as a whole would be obsolete (Apostal 102). The verb refused applies to Greek rigor, not Greeks, which is nonsensical. Be careful to ensure that your verbs match the subject you intend for them. Don't use till when you mean until. That's colloquial at words rhyme rises, best, and 118 78, not really a proper use of the words that rhyme rises, word at all at worst. The proper phrase is have never been formed. To say something never formed begs the question: What didn't it form? Even though there is a citation for children, this extreme declaration that mathematics as a whole would be obsolete, it's still probably hyperbole.
I wonder if the source actually said that, or if the student's paraphrasing has overstated the source's point that mathematics might be different without the advent of words, calculus. Be careful that you don't paraphrase in such a way as to claim a source said something that they did not. If this source really says mathematics would be obsolete without calculus, it's a bad source. Such a statement would render even basic arithmetic and counting as obsolete, which is romeo, ridiculous. Essentially , it is a case of Smith's word against a number of suspicious details pointing against him. He acknowledged possession of a copy of part of one of that with, Jones' manuscripts, on more than one occasion he deliberately altered or added to important documents before publishing them, and a material date I none of his manuscripts had been falsified (1675 had been changed to 1673) (Bogus, 78)
Essentially isn't technically incorrect here, but students do have a tendency to use words like essentially and basically too often. How To Wikipedia In Text? It's somewhat conversational, and words that rises, possibly colloquial. Try to avoid it unless something is how to cite in text, truly essential. A number of suspicious details pointing against him is an awkward way of saying: suspicions of his guilt. But what the student means is not suspicions, but points of evidence. When you list several examples of something you've indicated, the way to punctuate it is words that rhyme, as follows (note the placement of the colon and subsequent semicolons): [Point being made]:[proof 1];[proof 2];[proof 3]; and[proof 4]. This way each proof can have punctuation such as commas without being confused with other points, and each proof still points to the main part of the Essay concept of gender, sentence. This entire thing should be rewritten to say: It is a case of Smith's word against the evidence of his guilt: he acknowledged possession of rises, a copy of Jones' manuscripts; on more than one occasion he deliberately altered or added to important documents before publishing them; and his manuscripts had been falsified by changing 1675 to 1673 (Bogus, 78). After quoting a dictionary definition:
The editors of the famous dictionary are probably unaware of the fact that they have just committed a cardinal sin in Essay the mathematical world , in that they only described fingleish widgetry, and failed to include an explanation of that rhyme, fnordleish widgetry. It's okay to question a source, and at higher levels of education it might even be required. But if you're going to the great, do it, be careful to do it well and with evidence. This just sounds presumptuous. The student has not shown whether or not the dictionary has separate definitions for widgetry or otherwise accounts for its apparent lack of sufficient definition.
Saying the dictionary is famous is probably unnecessary, and possibly hyperbole. A cardinal sin is words rhyme with, a sin of fundamental importance. In the Judeo-Christian context, this would mean something very bad, like murder. Thus, calling a disagreement in on The pre-feminism of gender differences definition in a dictionary a cardinal sin is that with, definitely hyperbole. Even if it was a cardinal sin, the sin was committed in the dictionary, not in the mathematical world. The student meant against the mathematical world. It is surprising how people could be satisfied such a vague definition, as was the case in Webster's Dictionary, on a subject that has tested such great minds for centuries upon how to cite wikipedia in text centuries . It is surprising how students could be satisfied with such drivel in their essays. That sounds nasty, doesn't it? That's because it is.
Sentences like this are insulting and words with rises, off-putting, and don't belong in a formal essay. Such great minds requires an example. The word such should be omitted. Centuries upon centuries is redundant. Just say centuries and did alexander have, leave it at that. Jones' first object in Paris was to make contact with the French government but, while waiting for such an opportunity, he made contact with mathematicians and philosophers there, in particular Davis and Myers, discussing with Davis a variety of topics but particularly church reunification (Bugle 57). An object is rhyme, a thing. The student means Jones' first objective. This is did alexander have, a bad run-on. It should be broken up like this: Jones' first objective in Paris was to make contact with the French government, but while waiting for words that rhyme with rises, an opportunity to do so, he made contact with mathematicians and philosophers such as Davis and Myers.
He discussed a variety of topics with Davis, particularly church reunification (Bugle 57). Smith's contribution to math has helped our society become more technological in building things . In this particular case, Smith made many contributions, not just one. On The Pre-feminism Differences? Math is the colloquial version of words rhyme, mathematics. Did Smith's contributions only help our society? What about other societies? More technological in building things is a really awkward way of saying improved our technological aptitude.
Undoubtedly, Jones was one of the greatest geniuses that ever lived and this paper will demonstrate that, starting from his childhood until his death . Smith may have been a genius, but to blow that up to one of the greatest geniuses that ever lived is hyperbole. Even if it is true, the paper didn't demonstrate it because the 118 78 blood, paper didn't compare Smith to other great geniuses that have lived. The paper showed that Smith was a genius, perhaps, but not his rank amongst all of the words rhyme with, geniuses that have ever lived. If you start from something, you go to or follow through to another something. The phrase starting from his childhood until his death actually means you're starting from the section of time inclusively between his childhood and death and not saying where you're going. Furthermore, the paper does not start from Smith's childhood because it was not being written when Smith was a child. The student means, starting with his childhood and following through to his death. That is pressure, still awkward, and the sentence would be best written:
Undoubtedly, Jones was a genius, and this paper will demonstrate that by words rhyme, examining his entire life. So John lived for seven years with his mother's parents who did not really show him any affection . So in Swampy Work Project this context is colloquial and should be omitted. This really should be cited. John's address may be a matter of public record and therefore doesn't have to words that rhyme, be cited, but comments on and juliet scene the emotional quality of the words rhyme, household imply research, and the student should give credit to the source. Really is did alexander the great children, colloquial, and should be omitted. While at Cambridge, Smith's genius was most productive in his dedication to math . Who is that rhyme with rises, Smith's genius? The student means Smith's intellect, but an intellect cannot be productive. It facilitates productivity, but it is not productive itself.
A better way to write this would be: Smith's intellect was best displayed in did alexander have children his dedication. Math is colloquial. It should be mathematics. This information helps us to understand how we, as humans stay on the ground; we are matter as well and words with rises, do have an invisible force weighing us down as we push against it and it pushes back against us . This hand full of knowledge has helped our scientist understand our universe of heavenly bodies and their movement. It has also allowed scientist to delve further in exploring our galaxy. Does gravity only affect humans? Granted, the student is Florida Swampy Work Project, trying to with rises, make the science seem more personal, but this is an awkward way of doing it. Have? It is also something that seems to indicate an essay geared to children. While you should usually write essays so they can be understood by laypersons, you can assume those laypersons are your age and intellectual peers.
The description of the invisible force is that rhyme with, very awkward. A better wording would be: do have an blast furnace iron extraction invisible force that we push against as it pushes back against us. Gravity does not, in fact, weigh people down. The student's own definition of it earlier in the essay mentions this, and here too it is accurately described as a push, not a pull. To add in the bit about it weighing us down is words that, contradictory. The student means handful. This is a bad description anyway, since the student is trying to show how this knowledge is monumental to scientists. 118 78? Both instances of scientist should be pluralized. One delves further into words rhyme with rises, something, not in have it. The Royal Society always had someone coming in each week they met to show off their invention . Always had someone coming in is colloquial and awkward. It should say: The Royal Society hosted a guest each week.
The second part of this is a separate sentence and should be capitalized and words rises, punctuated accordingly, or else brought into 118 78 blood, the first sentence with appropriate conjunctions. Show off is colloquial. Demonstrate would be better. Since more than one invention was demonstrated, invention should be plural. A concluding paragraph: Jones was a great man who made an impact in all of our lives . He is recognized as one of the centuries brilliant-minded people who helped to further math along. This intellectual man has created something which has and words rhyme with, will be used for years to come.
This is an important part of did alexander the great have children, history which will and should never be forgotten. The essay has shown that Jones was brilliant and invented some useful things. It has not, however, demonstrated that he was a great man. A great man is one that embodies greatness in all things, including attitude, relationships with others, and their contributions to their society. Jones may have been all of rhyme with, this, but the essay did not reflect it, so it is hyperbole to declare it in the conclusion. It is also a highly subjective comment; what makes someone great to one person may not for another. Centuries is the plural of century, not the possessive. The student means century's. But Jones was not of our current century, so the student should define which century they mean. Impacts are made on, not in. If by all of us the how to in text, student means everyone on the planet, this is incorrect.
Jones' contributions to mathematics hardly impact the life of rhyme with rises, someone living in a non-literate, non-industrialized society. Even if the student merely means her peers, it is still hyperbole to declare that everyone has been impacted. If you're going to mention that the person did something in the great have children your conclusion, mention what that something is. While it is unlikely that Jones' history will be forgotten, the rhyme, student cannot effectively predict the did alexander, future in this way. Some of these comments may seem nitpicky, but the words that rhyme with, fact of the how to, matter is errors such as these reflect poorly on you and your essay. No one is perfect, and an essay with one or two awkward phrases won't be marked down just for those instances. But an essay that is full of the errors listed above prevents the reader from words rhyme with rises understanding the content. If the 118 78, instructor doesn't know what you mean, they can't possibly give you a good grade. Last updated in February 2005. Copyright #169 2000-2005 Kimberly Chapman.
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Sequence thinking vs. cluster thinking. Note: this is an unusually long and abstract post whose primary purpose is to help a particular subset of our audience understand our style of reasoning. It does not contain substantive updates on our research and recommendations. GiveWell both our traditional work and that rhyme rises, GiveWell Labs is Swampy Essay fundamentally about words with maximization: doing as much good as possible with each dollar you donate. Blast Iron Extraction? This introduces some major conceptual challenges when making certain kinds of comparisons for example, how does one compare the that impact of distributing bednets in sub-Saharan Africa with the impact of funding research on potential high-risk responses to iron extraction climate change, attempts to promote better collaboration in words that with rises the scientific community or working against abuse of animals on children factory farms? Our approach to words with making such comparisons strikes some as highly counterintuitive, and did alexander have, noticeably different from that of other prioritization projects such as Copenhagen Consensus. Rather than focusing on a single metric that all good accomplished can be converted into (an approach that has obvious advantages when ones goal is to maximize), we tend to rate options based on a variety of criteria using something somewhat closer to (while distinct from) a 1=poor, 5=excellent scale, and prioritize options that score well on multiple criteria. Words That Rhyme With Rises? (For example, see our most recent top charities comparison.) We often take approaches that effectively limit the how to weight carried by any one criterion, even though, in words that rhyme rises theory, strong enough performance on an important enough dimension ought to be able to offset any amount of weakness on other dimensions. Relatedly, we look into a broad variety of concept of gender causes, broader than can seemingly be justified by a consistent and stable set of values. Many others in the effective altruist community seem to have a strong and definite opinion on questions such as how much animals suffer compared to humans, such that they either prioritize animal welfare above all else or dismiss it entirely. (Similar patterns apply to words that rises views on the moral significance of the far future.) By contrast, we give simultaneous serious consideration to furnace extraction reducing animal suffering, reducing risks of that with global catastrophic events, reforming U.S. intellectual property regulation, global health and nutrition and more, and think its quite likely that well recommend giving opportunities in several of these areas, while never resolving the fundamental questions that could (theoretically) establish one such cause as clearly superior to 118 78 pressure the others.
I believe our approach is justified, and in order to explain why consistent with the project of laying out the basic worldview and epistemology behind our research I find myself continually returning to words that with the distinction between what I call sequence thinking and Florida History: Project, cluster thinking. Very briefly (more elaboration below), Sequence thinking involves making a decision based on words rhyme rises a single model of the world: breaking down the Florida Swampy Work Project Administration Essay decision into a set of key questions, taking ones best guess on each question, and that rhyme with, accepting the children conclusion that is implied by the set of best guesses (an excellent example of that with rises this sort of thinking is Florida History: Essay Robin Hansons discussion of cryonics). Words Rhyme With Rises? It has the Essay on of gender form: A, and B, and C and N; therefore X. Sequence thinking has the advantage of words that with rises making ones assumptions and beliefs highly transparent, and as such it is often associated with finding ways to make counterintuitive comparisons. Cluster thinking generally the have children more common kind of rises thinking involves approaching a decision from multiple perspectives (which might also be called mental models), observing which decision would be implied by each perspective, and weighing the Essay The pre-feminism concept differences perspectives in that with order to how to cite wikipedia arrive at that rhyme with a final decision. Wikipedia In Text? Cluster thinking has the form: Perspective 1 implies X; perspective 2 implies not-X; perspective 3 implies X; therefore, weighing these different perspectives and taking into account how much uncertainty I have about each, X. Each perspective might represent a relatively crude or limited pattern-match (e.g., This plan seems similar to other plans that have had bad results), or a highly complex model; the different perspectives are combined by weighing their conclusions against each other, rather than by words that rhyme with rises, constructing a single unified model that tries to account for all available information. A key difference with sequence thinking is the handling of in text certainty/robustness (by which I mean the opposite of Knightian uncertainty ) associated with each perspective. Perspectives associated with high uncertainty are in some sense sandboxed in cluster thinking: they are stopped from carrying strong weight in the final decision, even when such perspectives involve extreme claims (e.g., a low-certainty argument that animal welfare is 100,000x as promising a cause as global poverty receives no more weight than if it were an that with rises, argument that animal welfare is 10x as promising a cause as global poverty). Finally, cluster thinking is often (though not necessarily) associated with what I call regression to blood normality: the stranger and more unusual the words action-relevant implications of a perspective, the higher the Florida Swampy History: Work Project Administration Essay bar for words that taking it seriously (extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence). Ive tried to summarize the difference with the following diagram.
Variation in shape size represents variation in the certainty/robustness associated with different perspectives, which matters a great deal when weighing different perspectives against each other for cluster thinking, but isnt an Work Project, inherent part of sequence thinking (it needs to be explicitly modeled by inserting beliefs such as The expected value of this action needs to be discounted by 90%). I dont believe that either style of words rises thinking fully matches my best model of the theoretically ideal way to Essay on concept differences combine beliefs (more below ); each can be seen as a more intellectually tractable approximation to words rhyme with this ideal. I believe that each style of blood pressure thinking has advantages relative to words with the other. Extraction? I see sequence thinking as being highly useful for idea generation, brainstorming, reflection, and discussion, due to the way in rises which it makes assumptions explicit, allows extreme factors to carry extreme weight and iron extraction, generate surprising conclusions, and rises, resists regression to normality. However, I see cluster thinking as superior in pressure its tendency to reach good conclusions about which action (from a given set of options) should be taken. I have argued the latter point before, using a semi-formal framework that some have found convincing, some believe has flaws, and many have simply not engaged due to its high level of abstraction. In this post, I attempt a less formalized, more multidimensional, and hopefully more convincing (more cluster-style) defense. Words That Rhyme? Following that, I lay out why I think sequence thinking is important and is probably more undersupplied on a global scale than cluster thinking, and discuss how I try to how to cite combine the two in my own decision-making. Separately from this post, I have also published a further attempt to formalize the underlying picture of an idealized reasoning process. By its nature, cluster thinking is rhyme hard to describe and Florida Swampy Work, model explicitly. With this post, I hope to reduce that problem by a small amount to help people understand what is happening when I say things like I see no problem with your reasoning, but Im not placing much weight on it anyway or I think that factor could be a million times as important as the others, but I dont want to words rhyme give it 100x as much attention, and what they can do to change my mind in such circumstances. 118 78 Pressure? (The general answer is to rises reduce the uncertainty associated with an argument, rather than simply demonstrating that no explicit flaws with the the great children argument are apparent.) In the remainder of this post, I:
Elaborate on my definitions of sequence and rhyme with, cluster thinking. More Give a variety of arguments for on why one should expect cluster thinking to words that rhyme rises result in superior decisions. Blood? More Briefly note and link to a new page (published alongside this post) that attempts to words with formalize, to some degree, the idealized thought process Im envisioning and how it reproduces key properties of blood pressure cluster thinking. More Lay out some reasons that I find sequence thinking valuable, even if one accepts that cluster thinking results in superior decisions, and defend the idea of that switching between sequence and cluster styles for scene quotes different purposes. I believe sequence thinking is superior not only for purposes of discussion and rhyme, reflection (due to Florida Swampy History: Work Project Administration Essay its transparency), but also for reaching the sort of deep understanding necessary for intellectual progress, and for generating novel insights that can become overwhelmingly important. More Briefly discuss why cluster thinking can be confusing and words that rhyme rises, challenging to deal with in blood a discussion, and outline how one can model and respond to cluster-thinking-based arguments that are often perceived as conversation stoppers.More Close with a brief discussion of how I try to combine the two in my own thinking and actions. More. Before I continue, I wish to note that I make no claim to originality in the ideas advanced here.
There is substantial overlap with the that concepts of foxes and hedgehogs (discussed by Philip Tetlock); with the model and combination and adjustment idea described by Luke Muehlhauser; with former GiveWell employee Jonah Sinicks concept of romeo and juliet balcony many weak arguments vs. one relatively strong argument (and his post on Knightian uncertainty from words that rhyme with rises a Bayesian perspective); with former GiveWell employee Nick Becksteads concept of common sense as a prior; with Brian Tomasiks thoughts on cost-effectiveness in an uncertain world; with Paul Christianos Beware Brittle Arguments post; and probably much more. Defining Sequence Thinking and Essay The pre-feminism of gender, Cluster Thinking Say that we are choosing between two charities: Charity A vaccinates children against rotavirus, and Charity B does basic research aiming to improve the odds of eventual space colonization. Sequence thinking and cluster thinking handle this situation quite differently. Sequence thinking might look something like: Charity A spends $A per child vaccinated.
Each vaccination reduces the that rhyme with odds of death by Florida Work Essay, B%. (Both A and words that rhyme with rises, B can be grounded somewhat in further analysis.) That leaves an estimate of pressure (B/A) lives saved per dollar. I will adjust this estimate down 50% to account for the fact that costs may be understated and evidence may be overstated. I will adjust it down another 50% to account for uncertainties about organizational competence. Charity B spends $C per year. My best guess is that it improves the odds that space colonization eventually occurs by D%. I value this outcome as the equivalent of words that E lives saved, based on my views about when space colonization is likely to occur, how many human lives would be possible in on these case, and that rhyme with, how I value these lives. (C, D, and E can be grounded somewhat in further analysis.) That leaves an estimate of (D*E)/C) lives saved per dollar. I will adjust this estimate down 95% to account for my high uncertainty in these speculative calculations. I will adjust it down another 75% to Swampy Work Project Administration Essay account for uncertainties about organizational competence, which I think are greater for Charity B than Charity A; down another 80% to words rhyme with rises account for the fact that expert opinion seems to look more favorably on romeo scene quotes Charity A; and down another 95% to rhyme with account for the fact that charities such as Charity A generally have a better track record as a class.
After all of these adjustments, Charity B comes out romeo scene better, so I select that one. Cluster thinking might look something like: Explicit expected-value calculations [such as the above] imply quite a strikingly good cost-per-life-saved for Charity A, and rises, I think the estimate isnt terribly likely to blast furnace iron extraction be terribly mistaken. Thats a major point in favor of Charity A. Similar calculations imply good cost-per-life-saved for words with Charity B, but this is a much more uncertain estimate and Essay on, I dont put much weight on it. The fact that Charity B comes out ahead even after trying to that rhyme with rises adjust for other factors is a point in favor of Charity B. In addition, Charity A seems like a better organization than Charity B, and expert opinion seems to blood favor Charity A, and organizations such as Charity A generally have a better track record as a class, and all of that rhyme with rises these are signals I have a fair amount of confidence in. Therefore, Charity A has more certainty-weighted factors in its favor than Charity B. Note that this distinction is not the same as the distinction between explicit expected value and how to cite wikipedia, holistic-intuition-based decision-making. Both of the thought processes above involve expected-value calculations; the two thought processes consider all the same factors; but they take different approaches to weighing them against each other.
Specifically: Sequence thinking considers each parameter independently and doesnt do any form of sandboxing. So it is much easier for words that rhyme rises one very large number to dominate the entire calculation even after one makes adjustments for Essay concept differences e.g. expert opinion and words, other outside views (such as the track record of the general class of the great children organization). More generally, it seems easier to reach a conclusion that contradicts expert opinion and other outside views using this style. This style also seems more prone to zeroing in on a particular category of charity as most promising: for example, often ones estimate of the rhyme with rises value of did alexander the great space colonization will either be high enough to dominate other considerations or low enough to make all space-colonization-related considerations minor, even after many other adjustments are made. The two have very different approaches to what some call Knightian uncertainty (also sometimes called model uncertainty or unknown unknowns): the possibility that ones model of the words with rises world is making fundamental mistakes and missing key parameters entirely. 118 78? Cluster thinking uses several models of the world in that parallel (e.g., Expert opinion is iron extraction correct, The track record of the general class of an organization predicts its success, etc.) and limits the weight each can carry based on robustness (by which I mean the opposite words that rhyme of Knightian uncertainty: the feeling that a model is robust and unlikely to be missing key parameters); any chain of reasoning involving high uncertainty is essentially disallowed from making too much difference to the final decision, regardless of the magnitude of effect it points to. Sequence thinking involves the use of a single unified framework for decision analysis and by default it treats 50% probability that a coin comes up heads and 50% probability that Charity B will fail for a reason Im not anticipating in fundamentally the same way. When it does account for uncertainty, its generally by adjusting particular parameters (for example, increasing 0.00001% chance of a problematic error to 1% chance of romeo and juliet balcony scene a problematic error based on the chance that ones calculations are wrong); after such an adjustment, it uses the rhyme with highly uncertain probabilities adjusted for uncertainty just as it would use well-defined probabilities, and does not disallow the final calculation from carrying a lot of weight.
Robustness and uncertainty. For the and juliet balcony scene remainder of this piece, I will use the term robustness to refer to the confidence/robustness concept discussed immediately above (and uncertainty to refer to its opposite). Rhyme With Rises? Im aware that I havent defined the Florida Swampy Project Administration term with much precision, and I think there is substantial room for sharpening its definition. One clarification I would like to make is rhyme with that robustness is not the same as precision/quantifiability; instead, it is 118 78 blood intended to capture something like odds that my view would remain stable on this point if I were to gain more information, more perspectives, more intelligence, etc. or odds that the conclusion of words rises this particular mental model would remain qualitatively similar if the model were improved. Regression to normality. A final important concept, which I believe is loosely though not necessarily related, is that of regression to normality : the stranger and more unusual the implications of an Florida Swampy Project, argument, the more robustness the words that supporting arguments need to blast extraction have in order for words it to be taken seriously. One way to model this concept is to consider Conventional wisdom is correct and what seems normal is good to be one of the Swampy Work Essay perspectives or mental models weighed in parallel with others. This concept can potentially be modeled in sequence thinking as well, but in practice does not seem to be a common part of words rhyme with rises sequence thinking. A couple more clarifications. Note that sequence thinking and cluster thinking converge in Florida History: Administration the case where one can do an expected-value calculation with sufficiently high robustness. Outside view arguments inherently involve a substantial degree of uncertainty (there are plenty of examples of expert opinion being wrong, of longstanding historical trends suddenly ending, etc.) so a robust enough expected-value calculation will carry the decision in both frameworks.
Note also that cluster thinking does not convert uncertain, speculative probabilities automatically into very low probabilities. Rather, it de-weights the conclusions of words that rhyme with perspectives that overall contain a great deal of cumulative uncertainty, so that no matter what conclusion such perspectives reach, the iron conclusion is rhyme rises not allowed to have much influence on ones actions. Summary of properties of sequence thinking and cluster thinking. X; C implies X; therefore X) Why Cluster Thinking? When trying to compare two very different options (such as vaccinations and space colonization), it seems at first glance as though sequence thinking is superior, precisely because it allows huge numbers to Essay The pre-feminism concept differences carry huge weight. The practice of words that with rises limiting the weight of uncertain perspectives can have strange-seeming results such as (depending on robustness considerations) giving equal weight to Charity A seems like the the great have children better organization and Charity Bs goal is words rhyme 200 billion times as important. In addition, I find cluster thinking far more difficult to formalize and describe, which can further lower its appeal in blood public debates about where to give. Below, I give several arguments for expecting cluster thinking to produce better decisions. It is important to note that I emphasize better decisions and that rhyme rises, not correct beliefs: it is often the case that one reaches a decision using cluster thinking without determining ones beliefs about anything (other than what decision ought to be made). In the example given in the previous section, cluster thinking has not reached a defined conclusion on how likely space colonization is, how valuable space colonization would be, etc. and there are many possible combinations of these beliefs that could be consistent with its conclusion that supporting Charity A is superior. Cluster thinking often ends up placing high weight on outside view pattern-matching, and often leads to blast extraction conclusions of the form I think we should do X, but I cant say exactly why, and some of the most likely positive outcomes of this action may be outcomes I havent explicitly thought of. The arguments I give below are, to some degree, made using different vocabularies and different styles.
There is some conceptual overlap between the different arguments, and some of the arguments may be partly equivalent to each other. I have previously tried to use sequence-thinking-style arguments to rhyme rises defend something similar to have cluster thinking (though there were shortcomings in words that with the way I did so); here I use cluster-thinking-style arguments. Sequence thinking is prone to reaching badly wrong conclusions based on a single missing, or poorly estimated, parameter. Sequence-style reasoning often involves a long chain of in text propositions that all need to be reasonable for the conclusion to hold. As an example, Robin Hanson lays out rhyme rises 10 propositions that cumulatively imply a decision to sign up for Essay The pre-feminism concept of gender differences cryonics, and words that rhyme with, believes each to Florida Swampy Administration have probability 50-80%. However, if even a single one ought to have been assigned a much lower probability (e.g., 10^-5) or if hes simply failed to rhyme think of a missing condition that has low probability the calculation is completely off. In general, missing parameters and did alexander the great have children, overestimated probabilities will lead to overestimating the likelihood that actions play out with rises as hoped, and thus overestimating the Essay The pre-feminism differences desirability of deviating from words that tried and true behavior and behavior backed by outside views. Correcting for and juliet balcony scene missed parameters and overestimated probabilities will be more likely to cause regression to normality (and to the predictions of other outside views) than the reverse. Cluster thinking is more similar to empirically effective prediction methods.
Sequence thinking presumes a particular framework for thinking about the consequences of ones actions. Words Rhyme Rises? It may incorporate many considerations, but all are translated into a single language, a single mental model, and in some sense a single formula. I believe this is at odds with how successful prediction systems operate, whether in finance, software, or domains such as political forecasting; such systems generally combine the and juliet balcony quotes predictions of multiple models in ways that purposefully avoid letting any one model (especially a low-certainty one) carry too much weight when it contradicts the others. On this point, I find Nate Silvers discussion of his own system and the relationship to the work of rhyme rises Philip Tetlock (and the related concept of foxes vs. hedgehogs) germane: Even though foxes, myself included, arent really a conformist lot, we get worried anytime our forecasts differ radically from those being produced by our competitors. Quite a lot of evidence suggests that aggregate or group forecasts are more accurate than individual ones Foxes often manage to do inside their heads what youd do with a whole group of hedgehogs, Tetlock told me. What he means is that foxes have developed an on, ability to words rises emulate this consensus process. Instead of asking question of a whole group of experts, they are constantly asking questions of themselves. Often this implies that they will aggregate different types of blood information together as a group of people with different ideas about the world naturally would instead of treating any one piece of evidence as though it is the that Holy Grail.
The Signal and Florida History: Work Project Administration, the Noise, pg 66. In sequence thinking, a single large enough number can dominate the entire calculation. In consensus decision making, a person claiming radically larger significance for a particular piece of the words with picture would likely be dismissed rather than given special weight; in a quantitative prediction system, a component whose conclusion differed from others by a factor of 10^10 would be likely to blast furnace extraction be the result of words rhyme with rises a coding error, rather than a consideration that was actually 10^10 times as important as the others. The Great? This comes back to the points made by the above two sections: cluster thinking can be superior for words that rhyme with rises its tendency to sandbox or down-weight, rather than linearly up-weight, the models with the most extreme and Essay concept, deviant conclusions. A cluster-thinking-style regression to normality seems to prevent some obviously problematic behavior relating to knowably impaired judgment. One thought experiment that I think illustrates some of the advantages of cluster thinking, and that with, especially cluster thinking that incorporates regression to normality, is imagining that one is clearly and did alexander the great have, knowably impaired at the moment (for example, drunk), and words that with, contemplating a chain of Essay reasoning that suggests high expected value for some unusual and extreme action (such as jumping from a height). A similar case is that of a young child contemplating such a chain of reasoning. In both cases, it seems that the rhyme person in question should recognize their own elevated fallibility and take special precautions to avoid deviating from pressure normal behavior, in a way that cluster thinking seems much more easily able to accommodate (by setting an absolute limit to the weight carried by an uncertain argument, such that regression to that rhyme with rises normality can override it no matter what its content) than sequence thinking (in which any adjustments are guessed at using the same fallible thought process). The higher ones opinion of romeo and juliet balcony ones own rationality relative to other people, the less appropriate the above analogy becomes. But it can be easy to words that rises overestimate ones own rationality relative to Essay on other people (particularly when ones evidence comes from analyzing peoples statements rather than e.g. their success at achieving their goals), and some component of If Im contemplating a strange and potentially highly consequential action, I should be wary and seek robustness (not just magnitude) in my justification seems appropriate for nearly everyone. Sequence thinking seems to tend toward excessive comfort with ends justify the means type thinking.
Various historical cases of violent fanaticism seem somewhat fairly modeled as sequence thinking gone awry: letting ones decisions become dominated by a single overriding concern, which then justifies actions that strongly violate many other principles. (For example, justifying extremely damaging activities based on Marxist reasoning.) Cluster thinking is far from a complete defense against rhyme with rises such things: the robustness of a perspective (e.g., a Marxist perspective) can itself be overestimated, and furthermore a regression to normality can encourage conformism with highly problematic beliefs. However, the basic structure of cluster thinking does set up more hurdles for History: Work Project Administration Essay arguments about the ends (large-magnitude but speculative down-the-line outcomes) to justify the means (actions whose consequences are nearer and clearer). I believe that invoking the ends justify the means (justifying near and clear harms by words rhyme with rises, pointing to their further-out effects) is sometimes the how to cite right thing to do, and is sometimes not. Specifically, I think that the worse the means, the words with more robust (and not just large in claimed magnitude) ones case for did alexander the great have the ends ought to be. Cluster thinking seems to accommodate this view more naturally than sequence thinking. When uncertainty is high, unknown unknowns can dominate the impacts of our actions, and cluster thinking may be better suited to words that rhyme with optimizing unknown unknown impacts.
Sequence thinking seems, by its nature, to blood rely on listing the possible outcomes of an action and evaluating the action according to its probability of achieving these outcomes. Rhyme? I find sequence thinking especially problematic when I specifically expect the unexpected, i.e., when I expect the outcome of an action to Essay The pre-feminism depend primarily on factors that havent occurred to me. And I believe that the sort of outside views that tend to words that rhyme with get more weight in cluster thinking are often good predictors of unknown unknowns. For example, obeying common-sense morality (ends dont justify the means) heuristics seems often to lead to romeo and juliet balcony scene unexpected good outcomes, and contradicting such morality seems often to that rises lead to balcony quotes unexpected bad outcomes. As another example, expert opinion often seems a strong predictor of which way the arguments I havent thought of yet will point. Its hard to formalize expecting unknown unknowns to that rhyme with be the main impact of ones action in a helpful way within sequence thinking, but its a fairly common situation. In particular, when it comes to donations and other altruistic actions, I expect the on concept of gender differences bulk of the with rises impact to come from unknown unknown factors including flow-through effects. Broad market efficiency. Another way of thinking about the case for cluster thinking is to consider the dynamics of broad market efficiency. As I stated in that post:
the more efficient a particular market is, the higher the cite wikipedia in text level of intensity and with rises, intelligence around finding good opportunities, and therefore the more intelligent and dedicated one will need to be in order to consistently beat the market. The most efficient markets can be consistently beaten only by the most talented/dedicated players, while the did alexander the great have children least efficient ones can be beaten with fairly little in the way of words with rises talent and dedication. When one is considering a topic or action that one knows little about, one should consider the broad market to be highly efficient; therefore, any deviations from the Florida History: Work Project status quo that ones reasoning calls for words that with rises are unlikely to be good ideas, regardless of the and juliet scene quotes magnitude of benefit that ones reasoning ascribes to them. (An amateur stock trader should generally assume his or her opinions about stocks to be ill-founded and to have zero expected value, regardless of how strong the inside view argument seems.) By contrast, when one is considering a topic or action that one is relatively well-informed and intelligent about, contradicting market pricing is not as much of a concern. This is words that rhyme with a special case of as robustness falls, the potential weight carried by an argument diminishes no matter what magnitudes it claims and regression to normality becomes the stronger consideration. Sequence thinking seems to over-encourage exploiting as opposed to exploring ones best guesses. I expect this argument to be least compelling to most people, largely because it is difficult for how to cite wikipedia me to words rises draw convincing causality lines and give convincing examples, but to me it is a real argument in favor of blast iron extraction cluster thinking. Rhyme With Rises? It seems to me that people who rely heavily on sequence thinking have a tendency to arrive at a best guess as to how to in text what cause/charity/etc. That Rhyme With Rises? ought to be prioritized, and to focus on taking the actions that are implied by their best guess (exploiting) rather than on scene quotes actions likely to words lead to cite wikipedia rethinking their best guess (exploring). I would guess that this is that rises because: To the blood pressure extent that sequence thinking highlights opportunities for learning, it tends to focus on a small number of parameters that dominate the words that rhyme model, and these parameters are often the least tractable in terms of learning more (for example, the pressure value of that rises space colonization). And Juliet Quotes? It thus seems often to encourage continued debate on with largely intractable topics. Cluster thinking highlights many consequential areas of wikipedia in text uncertainty and promises returns to clearing up any of them, leading to more traction on learning and more reduction in that unknown unknowns over cite wikipedia, time.
Sequence thinking has a tendency to make different options seem to words that rhyme rises differ more in value, while cluster thinking tends to make it appear as though any high-uncertainty decision is a close one that can be modified with more learning. I believe the latter tends to be a more helpful picture. Cluster thinking tends to have heavier penalties for did alexander the great have uncertainty, due to its feature of not allowing the magnitude of words rhyme with rises a model parameter to overwhelm adjustments for uncertainty. When people are promoting speculative arguments, having to contend with and persuade cluster thinkers seems to cause them to do more investigation, do more improving of their arguments, and generally do more to increase the robustness of 118 78 their claims. In the domains GiveWell focuses on, it seems that learning more over time is paramount. We feel that much of the effective altruist community tends to be quicker than we are to dismiss large areas as unworthy of exploration and to focus in on a few areas. Formal framework reproducing key qualities of cluster thinking. Cluster thinking, despite its seeming inelegance, is in words rhyme with some ways a closer match to what I see as the Swampy History: Work Essay idealized thought process than sequence thinking is.
On a separate page, I have attempted to provide a formal framework describing this idealized thought process as I see it, and how this framework deals with extreme uncertainty of the kind we often encounter in that with rises making decisions about where to give. According to this framework, formally combining different mental models of the romeo and juliet world has a tendency to rhyme with cap the decision-relevance of highly uncertain lines of reasoning the same tendency that distinguishes cluster thinking from sequence thinking. For more, see my full writeup on 118 78 this framework, which I have confined to another page because it is long and highly abstract. Advantages of sequence thinking Despite the words with rises above considerations, I believe it is did alexander the great have children extremely valuable to engage in sequence thinking. In fact, my sense is that the world needs more sequence thinking, more than it needs more cluster thinking. While I believe that cluster thinking is more prone to words that with rises making the the great children correct decision between different possible (pre-specified) actions, I believe that sequence thinking has other benefits to offer when used appropriately. To be clear, in this section when I say engaging in rhyme with sequence thinking I mean working on generating and improving chains of reasoning along the lines of explicit expected-value calculations, or more generally, Trying to capture as many relevant considerations as possible in a single unified model of the world. Cluster thinking includes giving some consideration and weight to 118 78 pressure the outcomes of such exercises, but does not include generating them.
Many of the advantages I name have to words rises do with the tendency of sequence thinking to underweight, or ignore, outside views and crude pattern-matches such as historical patterns and expert opinion, as well as regression to and juliet balcony quotes normality; sequence thinking can make adjustments for such things, but I generally find its method for doing so unsatisfactory, and feel that its greatest strengths come when it does not involve such adjustments. Sequence thinking can generate robust conclusions that then inform cluster thinking. There are times when a long chain of reasoning can be constructed that has relatively little uncertainty involved (it may involve many probabilistic calculations, but these probabilities are well-understood and the overall model is robust). The extreme case of this is in some science and engineering applications, when sequence thinking is words rhyme all that is needed to reach the right conclusion (I might say cluster thinking reduces to sequence thinking in these cases, since the sequence-thinking perspective is so much more robust than all other available perspectives). A less extreme case is when someone simply puts a great deal of work into doing as much reflection and investigation as they can of the parameters in their model, to the point where they can reasonably be assumed to differences have relatively little left to learn in the short to medium term. People who have reached such status have, in my opinion, good reason to assign much less uncertainty to their sequence-thinking-generated views and to words rhyme rises place much more weight on their conclusions. (Still, even these people should often assign a substantial amount of uncertainty to their views.)
There are many times when I have underestimated the weight I ought to place on a sequence-thinking argument because I underestimated how much work had gone into investigating and romeo scene, reflecting on its parameters. Words With Rises? I have been initially resistant to many ideas that I now regard as extremely important, such as the greater cost-effectiveness of developing-world as opposed to developed-world aid, the potential gains to labor mobility, and views of long-term future effective altruists on pressure the most worrying global catastrophic risks, all of which appeared to me at first to words that with rises be based on pressure naive chains of logic but which I now believe to words that with have been more thoroughly researched and to The pre-feminism concept of gender differences have less uncertainty around key parameters than I had thought. Sequence thinking is more favorable to words with rises generating creative, unconventional, and nonconformist ideas. I often feel that people in the effective altruist community do too little regression to Essay on The pre-feminism concept differences normality, but I believe that most people in the world do far too much. Any thinking style that provides a regression to normality-independent way of rhyme reaching hypotheses has major advantages. Sequence thinking provides a way of seeing where a chain of furnace iron extraction reasoning goes when historical observations, conventional wisdom, expert opinion and words rhyme rises, other outside views are suspended. As such, it can generate the kind of ideas that challenge long-held assumptions and move knowledge forward (the cases I list in the immediately previous section are some smaller-scale examples; many scientific breakthroughs seem to fit in this category as well).
Sequence thinking is also generally an important component in 118 78 pressure the formation of that rises expert opinion (more below), which is usually a major input into cluster thinking. Sequence thinking is better-suited to transparency, discussion and reflection. I generally find it very hard to formalize and explain what outside views I am bringing to a decision, how I am weighing them against each other, and cite in text, why I have the words rises level of blast furnace iron certainty I do in each view. Many of my outside views consist of heuristics (i.e., actions fitting pattern X dont turn out words rises well) that come partly from personal experiences and observations that are difficult to introspect on, and even more difficult to blast share in ways that others would be able to comprehend and informedly critique them. Sequence thinking tends to consist of breaking a decision down along lines that are well-suited to communication, often in terms of a chain of words that with rises causality (e.g., This action will lead to A, which will lead to B, which will lead to concept differences outcome-of-interest C if D and E are also true). This approach can be clumsy at accommodating certain outside views that dont necessarily apply to a particular sub-prediction (for example, many heuristics are of the form actions fitting pattern X dont turn out that well for reasons that are hard to visualize in 118 78 blood advance).
However, sequence thinking usually results in a chain of reasoning that can be explicitly laid out, reflected on, and discussed. Consistent with this, I think the cost-effectiveness analysis weve done of top charities has probably added more value in terms of causing us to reflect on our views, clarify our views and debate our views, thereby highlighting new key questions than in words that terms of marking some top charities as more cost-effective than others. I have often been pushed, by people who heavily favor sequence thinking, to put more work into have, clarifying my own views, and that rhyme with, Ive rarely regretted doing so. Sequence thinking can lead to Essay on differences deeper understanding. Partly because it is better-suited to explicit discussion and reflection, and that with rises, partly because it tends to focus on in text chains of words that rhyme rises causality without deep integration of 118 78 blood poorly-understood but empirically observed outside view patterns, sequence thinking often seems necessary in order to understand a particular issue very deeply. Understanding an issue deeply, to me, includes (a) being able to with make good predictions in radically unfamiliar contexts (thus, not relying on furnace extraction outside views that are based on patterns from familiar contexts); (b) matching and surpassing the knowledge of that with rises other people, to the point where broad market efficiency can be more readily dismissed. In my view, people who rely heavily on sequence thinking often seem to have inferior understanding of subjects they arent familiar with, and to ask naive questions, but as their familiarity increases they eventually reach greater depth of understanding; by contrast, cluster-thinking-reliant people often have reasonable beliefs even when knowing little about a topic, but dont improve nearly as much with more study. At GiveWell, we often use a great deal of on concept of gender differences sequence thinking when exploring a topic (less so when coming to a final recommendation), and often feel the need to apologize in words with advance to the people we interview for on The pre-feminism asking naive-seeming questions. In order to reap this benefit of sequence thinking, one must do a good job stress-testing and challenging ones understanding, rather than being content with it as it is.
This is where the incentives to investigate provided by cluster thinking can be crucial, and this is why (as discussed below) my ideal is to that rhyme switch between the two modes. Sequence thinking can be a good antidote to scope insensitivity, since it translates different factors into a single framework in which they can be weighed against each other. I do not believe scope insensitivity is the only, or most important, danger in making giving decisions, but I do find sequence thinking extremely valuable in pressure correcting for it. Many seem to believe that sequence thinking is less prone to various other cognitive biases, and in general that it represents an antidote to the risks of words with rises using intuition or system 1. I am unsure of how legitimate this view is. When making decisions with high levels of uncertainty involved, sequence thinking is romeo balcony scene (like cluster thinking) dominated by intuition. Many of the most important parameters in ones model or expected-value calculation must be guessed at, and it often seems possible to words with rises reach whatever conclusion one wishes. Sequence thinking often encourages one to implicitly trust ones intuitions about difficult-to-intuit parameters (e.g., value of space colonization) rather than trusting ones more holistic intuitions about the the great children choice being made not necessarily an improvement, in my view. Cluster thinking and argumentation Ive argued that cluster thinking is generally superior for words reaching good conclusions, but harder to and juliet balcony scene quotes describe and model explicitly.
While I believe transparency of words with thought is useful and important, it should not be confused with rationality of Florida Administration thought. Ive sometimes observed an words that rhyme with rises, intelligent cluster thinker, when asked why s/he believes something, give a single rather unconvincing outside view related reason. 118 78 Blood Pressure? Ive suspected, in some such cases, that the person is actually processing a large number of different outside views in a way that is words rises difficult to introspect on, and being unable to cite the full set of perspectives with weights, returns a single perspective with relatively (but not absolutely) high weight. I believe this dynamic sometimes leads sequence thinkers to underestimate cluster thinkers. One of my hopes for this piece is to help people better understand cluster thinking, and in particular, how one can continue to make progress in Swampy Project Essay a discussion even after a seemingly argument-stopping comment like I see no problem with your reasoning, but Im not placing much weight on it anyway is made. In such a situation, it is important to ask not just whether there are explicit problems with ones argument, but how much uncertainty there is in ones argument (even if such uncertainty doesnt clearly skew the calculation in one direction or another) and whether other arguments, using substantially different mental models, give the same conclusion. That With Rises? When engaging with cluster thinking, improving ones justification of a probability or other parameter even if it has already been agreed to by both parties as a best guess has value; citing unrelated heuristics and patterns has value as well. To give an example, many people are aware of the basic argument that donations can do more good when targeting the blood pressure developing-world poor rather than the developed-world poor: the that rhyme with rises developing-world poor have substantially worse incomes and have children, living conditions, and that with rises, the interventions charities carry out Project Administration Essay are commonly claimed to be substantially cheaper on per-person or per-life-saved basis. Words Rhyme Rises? However, many (including myself) take these arguments more seriously on learning things like people I respect mostly agree with this conclusion; developing-world charities activities are generally more robustly evidence-supported, in addition to cheaper; thorough, skeptical versions of cost per life saved estimates are worse than the figures touted by charities, but still impressive; differences in wealth are so pronounced that hunger is History: Administration defined completely differently for the U.S. vs. That? developing countries; aid agencies were behind undisputed major achievements such as the eradication of smallpox; etc. The function of such findings isnt necessarily to address specific objections to the basic argument, but rather to put its claims on more solid footing to improve the robustness of the argument. The balance I try to strike As implied above, I believe sequence thinking is Administration Essay valuable for idea generation, reflection and discussion, while cluster thinking is best for making the final choice between options.
I try to use the two types of thinking accordingly. GiveWell often puts a great deal of work into understanding the causal chain of a charitys activities, estimating the cost per life saved, etc., while ultimately being willing to accept some missing links and that rhyme with rises, place limited weight on these things when it comes to how to cite in text final recommendations. However, there are also times in which I let sequence thinking dominate my decisions (not just my investigations), for the following reasons. One of the great strengths of sequence thinking is its ability to that rhyme with rises generate ideas that contradict conventional wisdom and easily observable patterns, yet have some compelling logic of their own. For brevity, I will call these novel ideas (though a key aspect of such ideas is that they are not just different but also promising). I believe that novel ideas are usually flawed, but often contain some important insight. Because the value of romeo and juliet balcony quotes new ideas is high, promoting novel ideas in a way that is likely to lead to stress-testing them, refining them, and ultimately bringing about more widespread recognition of their positive aspects has significant positive expected value. At the words rhyme with rises same time, a given novel idea is unlikely to be valid in its current form, and quietly acting on it (when not connected to promoting it in the marketplace of blood pressure ideas, leading to its refinement and/or widespread adoption) may have negative expected value. One example of this novel ideas dynamic is the charities recommended by GiveWell in 2006 or 2007: GiveWell at that time had a philosophy and methodology with important advantages over other resources, but it was also in a relatively primitive form and needed a great deal of work. Supporting GiveWells recommendations of that time in a way that could be attributed to rhyme with GiveWell led to increasing attention and influence for Florida Swampy GiveWell, which was evolving quickly and becoming a more sophisticated and influential resource. However, if not for GiveWells ongoing evolution, supporting its recommended charities would not have had the sort of words that with expected value that it naively appeared to (according to Florida History: Project Administration Essay our over-optimistic cost per life saved figures of the time). (Note that this paragraph is intended to give an example of the novel ideas dynamic I described, but does not fit the themes of the rhyme with rises post otherwise.
Our recommendations werent purely a product of sequence thinking but rather of a combination of sequence and cluster thinking.) For me, a basic rule of balcony thumb is that its worth making some degree of bet on novel ideas, even when the ideas are likely flawed, when its the kind of bet that (a) facilitates the words with rises stress-testing, refinement, and growing influence of these ideas; (b) does not interfere with other, more promising bets on other novel ideas. So it makes sense to start, run, or support an organization based on of gender differences a promising but (because dependent on sequence thinking, and in tension with various outside views) likely flawed idea if (a) the organization is well-suited to learning, refining, and stress-testing its ideas and growing its influence over time; (b) starting or supporting the organization does not interfere with ones support of other, more promising novel ideas. It makes sense to do so even when cluster thinking suggests that the novel ideas conclusions are incorrect, to the extent that quite literal endorsement of the novel idea would be wrong. When we started GiveWell, I believed that we were likely wrong about words rhyme with rises many of the things that seemed to us from an inside, sequence-thinking view to be true, but that it was worth acting on Essay concept of gender these things anyway, because of the above dynamic. (I am referring more to our theories about how we could influence donors and have impact than to our theories about which charities were best, which we tried to make as robust as we could, while realizing that they were still quite uncertain.) We believed we were onto words rhyme rises, some underappreciated truth, but that we didnt yet know what it was, and were provisionally accepting our own novel ideas because we could afford to do so without jeopardizing our overall careers and because they seemed to cite in text be the words rhyme novel ideas most worth making this sort of bet on. We expected our ideas to evolve, and rather than taking them as true we tried to stress-test them by examining as many different angles as we could (for example, visiting a recommended charitys work in cite the field even though we couldnt say in advance which aspect of our views this would affect).
There were other novel ideas that we found interesting as well, but incorporating them too deeply into our work (or personal lives) would have interfered with our ability to participate in this dynamic. The above line of argument justifies behavior that can seem otherwise strange and self-contradictory. Words That? For example, it can justify advocating and acting to some degree on a novel idea, while not living ones life fully consistently with this idea (e.g., working to promote Peter Singers ideas about the case for giving more generously, while not actually giving as much as his ideas would literally imply one should). When considering possible actions including avoiding factory-farmed meat, giving to the most apparently cost-effective charity, etc., I am always asking not only Does this idea seem valid to me? but Am I acting on this idea in did alexander the great have a way that promotes it and facilitates its evolution, and does not interfere with my promotion of other more promising ideas? As such, I tend to change my own behavior enough to reap a good portion of the benefits of supporting/promoting an idea but not as much as literal acceptance of the idea would imply. I have a baseline level of stability and conservatism in the way I live my life, which my bets on words with novel ideas are layered on top of in blood a way that fits well within my risk tolerance. Promoting a sequence-thinking-based idea in a cluster-thinking-based world leads to examining the rhyme with rises idea from many angles, looking for many unrelated (or minimally related) arguments in its favor, and generally working toward positive evolution of the idea. The ideal, from cite wikipedia in text my perspective, is to use cluster thinking to evaluate the that rhyme rises ultimate likely validity of ideas, while retaining ones ability to (without undue risk) promote and pressure, get excited about sequence-thinking-generated ideas that may eventually change the rises world. For one with few resources for idea promotion and exploration, this may mean picking a very small number of bets. For one who expects to influence substantial resources as GiveWell currently does it is rational to simultaneously support/promote work in on concept of gender multiple different causes, each of which could be promising under certain assumptions and parameters (regarding how much value we should estimate in the far future, how much suffering we should ascribe to animals, etc.), even if the assumptions and parameters that would support one cause contradict those that would support another.
When choosing between causes to support, cluster thinking rather than choosing ones best-guess for each parameter and going from words that rises there is called for. Thanks for the excellent post! How do you incorporate specific and confident adjustments into your cluster thinking process, such as the 118 78 blood pressure Synsepalum dulcificum example I gave in Model combination and adjustment? Great post, I expect it will be referenced often in words that the future. I think getting results extremely favoring one cause or intervention by many orders of magnitude in expected value often isnt so much a problem with sequential thinking, as of only exploring the maximum potential gains for some causes but not others.
For example, if one thinks that political activity is generally more leveraged than paying for Florida Swampy Work Project Administration direct interventions, then evaluating cause A against cause B with the assumption that cause A interventions will be political but cause B interventions wont can distort. Similarly, attending to impact on with rises future generations when assessing cause X but not cause Y can produce a big skew. But if one factors out such common influences and makes the maximalist case for plausible top picks in EV terms they wont be ten orders of magnitude apart (in absolute value, at least, they may differ in expected sign). Then one can apply all sorts of particular arguments and lines of evidence to weight those cases for high value against one another. Theres also the general problem of people not flagging whether they are talking about values within a model or all-things considered (perhaps because of confusion themselves, perhaps to and juliet scene quotes avoid distraction in a piece, perhaps for rhetoric). I think sequence thinking is perhaps a bit more efficient. How do factor graphs fit into either the sequence or cluster thinking paradigms? Ive suspected, in words that rises some such cases, that the scene person is actually processing a large number of different outside views in that with rises a way that is difficult to introspect on, and being unable to cite the full set of perspectives with weights, returns a single perspective with relatively (but not absolutely) high weight. I like this point.
But it also looks very similar to rationalisation, where the response to having one argument refuted is to furnace iron simply raise a new one, regardless of how important each was in forming the original conclusion. Do you have any feeling for how to recognise the difference between rationalisation and sophisticated assimilation of perspectives in your own mind, or how to detect interact with it in others? Thanks for the comments, all. Luke: the sort of adjustment you describe could be integrated into existing models (I usually like Thai food, though these arent usual circumstances) and/or represented as its own model (I expect miraculin to words with change my tastes, and Im quite confident in this, enough to outweigh the predictions of other models). Or it could be integrated using a different process entirely; I meant this post to contrast two simplified models of thinking rather than to romeo balcony scene propose any particular complete formula for reaching decisions. Carl : I agree that the method you suggest for comparing causes (e.g., making sure to include the maximalist case for all possibilities) will lead to a degree of convergence, but I think its hard to say just how much convergence. A sequence thinking framework often requires that one make extremely uncertain guesses regarding, e.g., the flow-through effects of that bednets or the probability of existential risk aversion, and variation in such guesses alone (even within the range of cite defensibility) can overwhelm other important factors in the final estimate (perhaps not by ten orders of words that rhyme with magnitude, but by enough to cause high sensitivity to these guesses). I also think its worth noting that a cluster thinking style led me to be skeptical of various claims about massive differences even before arguments about flow-through effects were on my radar. The Great Have Children? I think cluster thinking often helps one reach reasonable conclusions without having to words that rhyme rises get as many things right (compared to blast iron extraction sequence thinking); it allows more margin for error. Michael Miller: my feeling is words rhyme that cluster thinking is 118 78 blood pressure generally more efficient, in the sense of reaching reasonable conclusions with less effort/time/mental resources. Good sequence thinking requires building a careful model of the world, and taking great care not to that rhyme with get any particular piece badly wrong or omit a major consideration.
It also tends to involve high-stakes guesses about balcony scene uncertain parameters. Cluster thinking tends to be less sensitive to any one parameter, so it requires less precision, especially when a large number of perspectives are integrated. Note that the two are not distinguished by what information they use but by how they weigh different considerations against each other; I think find which way each consideration points and limit the weight of the more uncertain ones tends to that with be easier than figure out how to integrate each consideration within a unified model. Possibly for these reasons, cluster thinking seems to me to be more common, especially among those who have limited time to think things through. Im not familiar with factor graphs, so cant answer your other question. Helen Toner: the main thing Id say is that detecting the difference between a justified cluster-style view and Essay on of gender, an unjustified, rationalized view is rhyme with rises often not easy. I often mistake one for 118 78 the other, in both directions. Id like to see sequence thinkers recognize this difficulty more and be slower to jump to that with the conclusion that a particular persons position is furnace not worth considering, especially when there are other reasons to believe that person is credible.
I usually require a lot of words that with rises thought and information to decide one way or the other, and in the meantime I put an blast furnace, intermediate amount of weight on the person in questions view. Great post! This dyad of reasoning styles seems to show up in many domains, including artificial intelligence ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neats_vs._scruffies ), economics (central planning vs. free markets), and politics (authoritarianism vs. democracy, http://www.amazon.com/Democratic-Reason-Politics-Collective-Intelligence/dp/0691155658 ). Unfortunately, it seems we are doomed to peculiar behaviour with either method. Lets say we are making a cluster-thinking comparison of Charity A, which focusses on raising the likelihood of space colonisation, against Charity B, which helps people but has no expected impact on words that with rises space colonisation. At the time, we believe the solar system is the only thing that exists. 118 78 Blood Pressure? Nonetheless, thanks to the great expanse of the solar system, Charity A gets maximum marks (5 out of 5) for that with rises possible expected impact. But when all clusters are combined into an overall judgement, it still comes out blast behind Charity B. Soon after, scientists go away and make a huge discovery in fact there are 100 billion galaxies each with 100 billion stars. The universe is 10^22 larger than we thought!
We naturally decide to words that with go back and how to wikipedia, reassess Charity A against Charity B. However, because we are boxing in the importance of the observation expected value is high because space is huge, Charity B remains better by about the same margin. Despite what seems like an extraordinary increase in words rhyme with the importance of leaving Earth however valuable we thought it was before our decision remains the same. On the other hand, someone who exclusively uses sequence thinking is concept of gender vulnerable to Pascals mugging and can easily become fanatical impossible to convince that anything else is important no matter how many other considerations can be brought to bear. I value this post for laying out the pros and cons of each style. Because there are so many, its easy to agree with the list of the words that rhyme with rises considerations but still reach a different conclusion. Personally, I am most worried about scale insensitivity, both outside of the effective altruism movement and inside it. Did Alexander Children? As a result, I would rather see more use of sequence thinking, though nobody I know favours using just one approach. A conjecture on my part: Cluster thinking seems to be a good way to improve your median outcome, or improve your accuracy in a binary prediction.
It will lower your chances of failing because of a single mistake in one part of your calculation. But when it fails, it can fail hugely, for words rises failing to cite wikipedia in text give sufficient weight to rhyme an insight that was much more important than others. In particular, its scope insensitivity means that while we should expect it to fail less often, its failures will be concentrated in Swampy History: Project Administration Essay the scenarios that matter most (those where your potential impact was highest). As a result, it may still lower your average/expected outcome. Robert, I do agree that each style of thinking leads to with peculiar behavior; I see each as only an approximation of the Essay on The pre-feminism concept differences ideal thought process. That said, depending on the particulars, I wouldnt necessarily characterize the behavior youre describing (re: a discovery about the size of the universe) as peculiar or wrong.
The ideal thought process as I see it could easily, quite rationally and consistent with expected value maximization, have just such a reaction. More at the technical supplement to the post. For my part, I would disagree with the claim that cluster thinking tends to optimize for the median but not the rises expectation. Many of the examples in this post (e.g., the one about impaired judgment as well as the bit about cite in text ends vs. means) were meant to words imply this by showing how sequence thinking leads to things that seem clearly wrong/irrational and Florida History: Work Project Administration Essay, not just wrong most of the time. The technical supplement also spells out why I think this. I think sequence thinking becomes more valuable when it interacts in rises the appropriate way with the 118 78 pressure marketplace of words rhyme with ideas. I think the best combination is sequence thinking for have children exploration and cluster thinking for words rhyme rises evaluation, as outlined at the end of the post, and I think this combination is likely to do well at addressing scope insensitivity issues, if a subset of balcony people choose to explore seemingly high-priority issues and work on strengthening the case for them. A problem with Cluster thinking is that what the system has is words rhyme with rises not multiple perspectives but the pressure systems beliefs about other perspectives. In sequence thinking the system can hold this set of beliefs:
In cluster thinking what we have is. [holds system belief_2 perspective_1] [holds system belief_n perspective_1] [holds system belief_2 perspective_k] [holds system belief_n perspective_k] It isnt really other perspectives it is what the words rhyme with system believes other perspectives to pressure be, which may or may not be accurate. Thanks for this post and words that rhyme with rises, your attempt at a more technical description of a model. Did Alexander The Great Have? I appreciate both, in different ways.
I like the way that this post provides an explicit discussion of the trade-offs between these different style of rhyme with rises approaches. Swampy Administration? I had been planning to write a piece on the pros and cons of words rises explicit models (similar to what you have called sequence thinking), as I think it is iron extraction useful to have this more widely known and discussed. But youve already covered most of the ground, as well as a couple of points I hadnt thought of. One major technique which I think is important but which you dont mention is this: if you have several models which give very different answers, this provides evidence that you should go back and re-examine your assumptions, searching for more consistency. This is close to the time-honoured tradition of sanity-checking the results of calculations. Words With Rises? It can be abused, and furnace, you shouldnt put too much confidence in the fact that several models agree if you had to massage them to do so, but it is one of the more important tools available to that rhyme us in trying to integrate these different types of thinking. I like the fact that you have tried to write down precise versions of the blast iron procedure in words with rises the linked post. As you remark, one of the balcony quotes general virtues of sequence thinking is words that with that it allows more precise discussion and romeo and juliet balcony scene, refinements, in a way that cluster thinking does not.
Unfortunately, there are a number of unclarities and what appear to be mistakes in that write-up (for example in the worked example you appear to conflate expected value and that rises, median, when these diverge in important ways in the example). I take the post as having value in gesturing towards the sort of how to cite in text way that you think we should be exploring this area, and the type of analysis you would like to see more of, but I worry that it is too far from working at that rhyme with rises the moment to be worth trying to Florida Project Administration Essay use. Words That Rhyme With Rises? Thats not necessarily a problem its often the case with early-stage models. But does it agree with your thinking? I am happy to provide more detailed comments, and explore how we could improve it, but Im not sure this is the right forum for did alexander the great have that. Holden, thanks for writing this interesting post and taking the time to explain your approach to decision-making in detail. As informally outlined, I think the words that with rises ideas here have a lot of did alexander have children merit. Words That Rhyme With Rises? One thing you didnt highlight is that cluster thinking can highlight opportunities for learning. When two seemingly important perspectives disagree, it often indicates that there is something important to be learned about one of the perspectives or how it should be applied. People who focus on one perspective to the exclusion of others can miss out on these learning opportunities.
Some concerns/additional thoughts about did alexander the great have children cluster thinking: (A) I think it was interesting to see your response to Helens concern about rhyme rises rationalization in cluster thinking. Romeo And Juliet Quotes? It is hard to words rises tell whether some other cluster thinker is Essay on The pre-feminism concept of gender differences rationalizing, but Im at words that rhyme with least as concerned about how to cite wikipedia my own rationalization. With Rises? If I have 10 arguments for my view, unless someone painstakingly refutes a few of romeo and juliet balcony my arguments at once (a level of attention that is rare), theres a concern that Ill say, Well, sure you overcame one of the arguments for my view, but I have nine other arguments. Going back to words with rises my comment above, it would be important for 118 78 blood pressure a good cluster thinker to revisit their other arguments whenever one of them gets a good pummeling. (B) Another aspect of your informal framework (presented in the main post) that seems problematic is the focus on making decisions on the basis of certainty-weighted perspective, to words that rhyme the exclusion of importance-weighted perspectives.
Abstractly speaking, it seems that one very uncertain but very important perspective should be able to outweigh other perspectives. Essay The Pre-feminism Concept? More concretely, if the arguments against X are all of the form doing X would be weird, doing X would be rude, and doing X would violate company policy, but the arguments in against doing X are of the form I can imagine a way in words with rises which doing X would cause a nuclear meltdown, I want a decision procedure that allows me to did alexander children not do X. (C) Perhaps related to rises (B), suppose youre ranking giving opportunities in how to terms of intervention quality, organization quality, room for rises more funding, and monitoring and evaluation (toy example). Should we give to a highly transparent opera charity run by Florida History: Work Administration, great people that has lots of room for more funding rather than a vaccination charity that is just average (or maybe pretty good) along the other dimensions? I worry that your framework would make the opera charity more competitive than I think it should be. I guess the devil would be in the details. A couple of issues/questions regarding the technical framework youve developed: I believe that your formal framework (presented here: https://www.givewell.org/modeling-extreme-model-uncertainty) puts more weight on a model that has a lot of that rhyme variance, but clearly higher expected value than a model with low variance and balcony quotes, low expected value.
And sometimes that seems like a mistake. For example, suppose I have two models m_1 and m_2, and suppose e_1 = 1000, e_2 = 10000, u_1 = 10, and u_2 = 100. Using your formula, I get that the expectation of taking the bet is: [1000/(10^2) + 10000/(100^2)] / [1/(10^2) + 1/(100^2)] = 1089 (approximately) So my overall expected value of this bet is dominated by that with, m_1, but intuitively it should be dominated by m_2, which is saying the impact is cite almost definitely greater than 1000. Put another way, your framework sees a huge difference between switching the that with u_i on how to cite in text the two models above, but I dont think thats justified. A second issue that I only realized after reading this a few times was that the models youre describing arent necessarily incompatible ways of looking at a question; instead they are sort of that rhyme rises complementary. This makes sense in Florida Swampy History: Work Project the informal frameworkand reinforces the sanity check phenomenon that Owen and words that rhyme rises, I describe above. However, it does seem fairly different from what I would think is the typical Bayesian way of thinking about uncertainty over multiple models. Usually, the models/hypotheses one would consider would be mutually exclusive rather than complementary. Operating in Swampy History: Work Project Administration Essay that kind of framework, my first instinct for calculating overall expected value would be to with have a probability distribution Pr over the m_i and and juliet, look at:
Can you say more about why you didnt approach the problem in this way? Im particularly curious about why there isnt anything like a prior over models in your framework. To clarify a bit: I generally agree with you about the strengths and weaknesses of cluster thinking, and your diagnosis that the EA crowd is more sequence-thinking oriented than lots of people. Im more concerned about the formal model than the that rhyme informal model. With the furnace iron extraction informal model, my main concern is that using it leads to rationalization. I think Nick makes an important distinction in how we may think about model combination. Two natural and opposed approaches are: (1) Assume that one and only one of the models is correct, and update in with rises a Bayesian manner. (2) Assume that all of the models give independent information about the world. Of course in fact neither of these can be right. It is the great certain that none of our models is an entirely accurate description of the world.
But if we have two models which tell us radically different things, each with a similarly high level of confidence, the appropriate conclusion is not that the words that with rises true value lies somewhere in on The pre-feminism the middle, and each was unlucky with the amount of words rhyme noise; rather we should think that one of the models is badly wrong. Questions of how to combine models are studied in machine learning. Theyre mostly looking at classification tasks, and they dont appear to have any methods we could port over to furnace iron estimation tasks directly, but it seems worth being aware of the area, as there may be some shared insights: The other problem with Cluster Thinking is (I believe) that the mind seeks coherence, and while it may hold beliefs about what others believes (other points of words rhyme with view) it generally accepts or rejects these points of view when it comes to romeo balcony quotes reasoning. Paul Thagard has done some research on Coherence in General, and Jean Piaget did some work on the assimilative and accommodative processes involved in accepting new information and changing ones opinion.
In fact, in his book, The Development of Thought, (1978, 1985) he states that A system of that rhyme rises assimilation tends to blast furnace iron extraction feed itself which I take to mean that a cognitive system will seek to coherently integrate new information, accepting information compatible with what it already believes and words rhyme with, rejecting information that is incompatible with its beliefs. I think coherence will be an blast furnace iron, issue if one is to seriously implement Cluster Thinking. By the that rhyme with way, I have no preference to furnace extraction Sequence or Cluster thinking, I think they are both new concepts which give another lens to mental models. Words That Rhyme Rises? These are just my observations. Great post! A small comment: I think it might be unfair to hold up the Copenhagen Consensus as the paradigm of sequence thinking. Did Alexander The Great Children? While they give cost-benefit analysis a significant role in their evaluations, its always followed by that with rises, a qualitative discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the model. Moreover, their overall ranking is based on Florida History: Work Administration Essay the judgement of a panel of leading economists, using the CBA as an input, but often not ranking in that order of furnace extraction CB ratio. This looks like cluster thinking to me! Thanks for words that rhyme with rises the further comments, all.
Michael Miller: Im still not following you. Blast Extraction? I didnt mean to define cluster thinking via forming models of what other people think but rather using different mental models with different implications. For example, Historical patterns imply this action wont go well; best-guess expected-value calculations imply that it will. Owen, thanks for words rhyme with rises all the Swampy History: Essay thoughts. A few responses: On revisiting models when they disagree: I agree that this can be a very useful thing to do, and think it often belongs in sophisticated versions of the words that rhyme rises model combination and Florida Swampy Work, adjustment step. Note that a common adjustment is to words that with rises discard outliers, which would largely reinforce the qualitative tendencies of cluster thinking (as opposed to sequence thinking). I agree with your general comments on the formal model it is romeo balcony scene meant to gesture at how Im thinking rather than to be used as a tool. I think its very poorly suited to actual use in making decisions, and words that rhyme rises, may never get there. That said, Id still be happy to have your more detailed comments if its convenient for you to share them. This comment thread seems like an appropriate place to do so; email would work too. On means vs. medians: Jacob and I were aware of this issue but neglected to address it explicitly in the writeup.
We purposefully used distribution types that are extraordinarily fat-tailed, in order to pre-empt claims that inappropriately thin tails are doing most of the work. The result of this is that we used distributions with some strange properties. The means follow the same qualitative pattern as the medians, but they are much higher, so much so that even the pessimistic models imply very high expected value. To get more intuitive means, we would have had to use much less intuitive parameters and/or use less fat-tailed distributions. I think what we did works as an illustration, but youre right that it neglects to mention this issue. Re: complementary vs. mutually exclusive models (both Owen and Nick) : the idea is that the models are not mutually exclusive, but simply represent different ways of reasoning toward a conclusion. How To In Text? I believe that in real-world decision-making (as well as in many algorithmic prediction systems), it is more common to that rhyme rises have multiple ways of looking at a problem (which be correlated and overlapping) than it is to be deciding between multiple mutually exclusive models of the world, one of which is how to wikipedia strictly best.
If doing the that rises latter, I agree that Nicks approach would be right, but for Florida History: Work Project Administration the former case, it is words important to have use all the information we have about the different levels of model uncertainty for different models, and the approach Ive proposed seems to do that better than simple probability-weighting of conclusions. I agree with you about the danger of rationalization. I also think sequence thinking can be used for rationalization, but one advantage of sequence thinking is its transparency, which (if one seeks out criticism) may work against words rhyme rationalization. 118 78 Blood Pressure? I used the phrase certainty-weighted once in the post for shorthand, but I didnt mean to imply that cluster thinking uses the words rises level of certainty as the only input into did alexander the great have children, the decision-weight carried by each perspective. Rather, Id say that the weight of each perspective is *limited* according to the degree of certainty. The idea is something more like Extraordinarily uncertain arguments can only matter a little; moderately certain arguments can matter a lot, if they say that something is words very important; highly certain arguments can matter overwhelmingly, if they say that something is overwhelmingly important. I think this formulation avoids a lot of the problems that pure certainty-weighting would have, and how to wikipedia in text, largely addresses the that rhyme with point about the opera charity (though I could imagine cases in how to wikipedia in text which Id rather give to a particular opera charity than to a particular vaccination charity). That said, the basic idea that a sufficiently uncertain perspective cant carry the decision no matter how important it claims to be seems important to cluster thinking, and defensible, on the grounds that getting rid of that property seems to open the doors to many of the problematic properties of sequence thinking (those related to words that rises high sensitivity to a small number of furnace iron extraction uncertain parameters). Regarding this: For example, suppose I have two models m_1 and m_2, and suppose e_1 = 1000, e_2 = 10000, u_1 = 10, and u_2 = 100. The conclusion you find problematic seems reasonable to me. Its true that model 2 is very confident that the action has very high expected value, but model 1 is enormously more confident that it doesnt. After discussing this with another staffer, I think the intuition that this is wrong comes from the fact that it is a strange case due to the small degree of overlap between the two probability distributions; I think it can be argued that the that rises formulas result is reasonable and intuitively defensible, but it would take an extended writeup or discussion (which Id be willing to have offline if youd like). On using mental models.
Lets take a real example. Suppose we have a computer program which uses both Sequence Thinking and Cluster thinking. How would we represent their models. Ill use The Premise Language for of gender shorthand (see http://premiseai.tumblr.com): (let believe :who :what) (let exists :what)
(let not-exists :what) [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God] [not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] (let viewpoint :which :what ) [viewpoint :which Buddhism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]]
[believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God] [not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]]
[viewpoint :which Atheism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God] [not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] [viewpoint :which Christianity. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]]
[believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God]
[not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] [viewpoint :which Islam. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God]
[not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] [viewpoint :which Judaism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God] [not-exists :what God])]
[believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] [viewpoint :which Agnosticism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]]
[believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God] [not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] [viewpoint :which Hinduism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Atheists :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what (or [exists :what God]
[not-exists :what God])] [believe :who Hindus :what [exists :what Gods]] In both cases Sequence thinking and Cluster thinking it is the words rhyme rises cognitive system holding the belief sets. Ergo, it is the and juliet scene quotes cognitive systems belief set about rhyme rises another partys beliefs, and History: Essay, not the other partys beliefs themselves. In the above example, All parties are in agreement on that rises one anothers positions. However, suppose one party holds a viewpoint which differs from the cognitive systems representation of their viewpoint. For example, (Lets use the Agnostics since they dont care): [viewpoint :which Agnosticism. [believe :who Buddhists :what [exists :what God]]
[believe :who Atheists :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Christians :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Muslims :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Jews :what [not-exists :what God]] [believe :who Agnostics :what [exists :what God]] [believe :who Hindus :what [not-exists :what Gods]] Suppose the cognitive system held the above beliefs about agnosticism. Blast Furnace Extraction? It would be wrong from that rhyme with rises our perspective. However, in my view, all mental models are approximations and may omit certain pertinent propositions, because they are models.
And we may get anothers viewpoint wrong. Balcony Quotes? So the cognitive system winds up using its model of other viewpoints for reasoning, however accurate or inaccurate. My contention is that all models are approximate, especially mathematical ones. That was my point. Im coming at this from an that with rises, implementation perspective. How can you use a model if you dont form it first. Where do the models come from then? Moreover Im coming at Essay on The pre-feminism concept of gender differences this from a constructivist implementation perspective. My approach is to form models within an artificial cognitive system.
One has to words that with rises form the model before it can be used for reasoning or decision making. It can be argued that even people form models, before they use them, and their models can be more or less accurate. @Owen Cotton-Barratt: Im late to the party on this one, but there are some ensemble methods for regression in machine learning. Gradient boosted regression trees, regression forests, and AdaBoost are three such methods (AdaBoost is typically used for classification but has been generalized to regression contexts also). AdaBoost seems the most analogous to model combination as humans do it, and in particular to the many weak arguments reasoning that has been written about in the past.
Ben: I think there are few if any examples of 100% pure sequence thinking; with that said, I see the Copenhagen Consensus as being about as close as we generally see. All of the analysis and reasoning they publish is blast furnace iron focused around their cost-benefit ratio analysis, and generally speaking, a significant portion of the discussion is devoted to discount rates, to which the results are often highly sensitive. Its true that at the end of the process, there is words rhyme rises a panel that changes some of the conclusions, but the reasoning behind the changes does not seem to be disclosed, and have children, the cost-effectiveness estimates seem to be at words rises the center of the process. Holden, thanks for 118 78 pressure the response. Here are my comments on the formal model and rises, worked example. Ill separate them into different posts for legibility. This isnt an error as such, but I think it would help to stress the distinction between in-model chance and uncertainty about the model. It isnt clear to me that its right to on concept of gender pull all of the uncertainty about the model into that with rises, F_i. I quite like keeping a distinction between uncertainty about and juliet balcony model parameters (which you deal with via F_i or similar), and uncertainty about the possibility that the model is fundamentally incorrect. One reason to do this is that there is no clean line between what constitutes one or two models. * We might have two approaches for words that rises modelling a variable, A and B.
* Now we notice that theres a slight variation of A, A; were not sure if this is better. * Taking the geometric mean of A, A, and B may give quite a different answer to taking the geometric mean of 118 78 blood pressure A and that rhyme with, B, although really weve gained very little information. Note that A and A are giving far from independent information. One solution might be to have a credence in A which then gets divided (more or less) between A and A. Better yet might be keeping track of independence. The model combination method of taking the how to cite in text geometric means has weak justification.
I agree that invariance under future Bayesian updates is an attractive property. This is accounting for with rises the fact that the models may not be independent. However, its claimed The geometric mean is the only way to do this while also treating all the models symmetrically. Is there a proof of did alexander have children this, or a reference? It seems like the method of assuming that exactly one of words rhyme rises your models is correct will also work, so long as you update your credences over which is the the great have children correct model as well as updating your model. This seems perhaps more natural than the geometric means method (although assuming that exactly one is correct seems an error). Im not saying that the geometric mean is definitely wrong, but you havent convinced me that its ideal. Using the geometric mean method also gets you into problems with your other statements. You said: Using non-Gaussian distributions and/or other combination methods would complicate the actual formula for calculating overall expected value, but in general would not change the words rhyme with qualitative picture: when combining two probability distributions, it is robustly true that a fatter distribution will cause less of an update from the distribution it is combined with, and that a sufficiently fat distribution (approximating constant probability density) will cause negligible such updating regardless of where its midpoint lies. With the the great method of taking geometric means rather than multiplying together the words that with probabilities, the final claim is false. Furnace Iron Extraction? If you take the that rises geometric mean with of a sensible distribution with one fat enough to how to in text be essentially flat over the area in question, youll end up close to taking the words with square root of the probability density of your original distribution (and renormalizing).
With a distribution with the right kind of tail, this could make it much more thick-tailed and shift the mean up considerably (indeed arbitrarily far). For example if the probability density falls off with an blood pressure, inverse square of the value, then its square root is an rhyme rises, improper distribution, so precisely how fat the fat distribution is carries a lot of weight. On the way your example uses medians and calls them expectations, you said: On means vs. medians: Jacob and I were aware of this issue but neglected to in text address it explicitly in the writeup. Im afraid I cant really see how this is defensible. It means that the example is misleading people instead of clarifying. You might counter that it helps to demonstrate the point you think is important, but it really gives people an illusion that they understand whats going on. Its not the same as a simplifying assumption, because these are flagged so people realise that the assumption has gone in. Instead its been slipped in silently. You said: We purposefully used distribution types that are extraordinarily fat-tailed, in order to pre-empt claims that inappropriately thin tails are doing most of the work.
The result of with this is that we used distributions with some strange properties. The means follow the same qualitative pattern as the Essay on of gender differences medians, but they are much higher, so much so that even the pessimistic models imply very high expected value. To get more intuitive means, we would have had to use much less intuitive parameters and/or use less fat-tailed distributions. I think there were four reasonable approaches here: 1. Produce a toy example which uses thin-tailed distributions. 2. Produce an example with thick-tailed distributions, and words that rhyme rises, explain why the balcony scene mean values are higher than expected. (This is a key feature of heavy tailed distributions which deserves to that rhyme with be more widely understood!) 3. Do both of the 118 78 above have a quick proof-of-concept example with the thin-tailed distributions, and an example to show the effects you get with thick-tailed distributions. 4. Post the example you did, with a disclaimer that the technical details are not correct because means/medians, but that youve simplified and dont think this changes things substantially. Actually, do you have the words that numbers that come out of using expectations in your worked example? I would have loved to see these. I havent put this into any kind of stats package, but I think that the geometric mean approach will mean that expectations are rather more sensitive to uncertain models than the medians, for the reasons I outlined in the comment above.
@Ben Kuhn: Thanks for the search terms! I suspected there was something more relevant out romeo balcony scene there. What were trying to do here isnt quite a regression task (we generally dont have training data that we believe; were using some other process for weighing the relative merits of different models), although its closer to words that rises that than to a classification problem. From some quick reading, it seems that the analogous procedure to Adaboost in our context would be to the great have children weight the various models according to how much we believe them, take a simple weighted average of the corresponding distributions F_i, and then use the words rhyme rises median value of this combination. Swampy History: Work Essay? Does that sound right to that rises you?
@Owen: What do you mean by saying we generally dont have training data that we believe? How do we decide between models other than picking the one that most successfully accounts for what weve already seen (combined with some sort of inductive bias*)? @Ben: I suppose I mean that the inductive bias, or something like it, is Swampy Project Administration Essay doing a lot of work. We often build causal models, where we have data to support the words that with rises different parts of the model, but not for cite wikipedia in text the thing as a whole (because were trying to predict something that weve never been able to measure). What are some instances in which expert opinion is NOT an input into words rhyme rises, cluster thinking? Heres a reference for the geometric mean derivation: The formalization of the property claimed is external Bayesianity; my original claim, which Holden cites in his post, is blast extraction true except in some very degenerate cases. The latter part of that rhyme your comment is correct, though.
We initially were taking the product rather than the romeo and juliet balcony geometric mean, and forgot to modify that paragraph to account for the change. Thanks for the further comments, all. Re: your first comment, it seems to words rhyme me that the best solution is keeping track of independence; this could be formalized via the covariance between different models. My simplified model implicitly assumes independence, which isnt right (and exaggerates the added robustness one gets from each additional model). Fair points about the geometric mean. Your last comment notwithstanding, using the geometric mean does seem to cite preserve most of the that rhyme rises qualitative properties stressed in blast extraction cluster thinking, but I agree that there are cases in which it would not. Fair point about the lack of disclaimer; Ive now added one. The medians/means are as follows Model 1 22545/156373660163; model 2 1456/2463; model 3 512/2495; combination 961/5289; first alternative combination 6569/11674; second alternative combination 896/5310. Note also that the full code is available. almondguy : cluster thinking could rely on a number of historical patterns or general heuristics without incorporating expert opinion.
For example, I might believe team X is likely to win a baseball game because it wins more than half its games, its opponent loses more than half its games, its starting pitcher has a winning record, and its playing at home (and the home team wins more than half the that rhyme with rises time); thats 4 outside views without detailed conceptual models or expert opinion incorporated. @ Jacob: Thanks for the reply and the link. Re. the geometric mean derivation, it seems to me that a key assumption in Swampy History: Administration that paper is that the pooling operator itself isnt updated in words that rhyme with rises light of new information. That makes some sense in a panel-of-experts context, but its not clear that its necessary in the model combination context. For instance the naive Bayesian updating of how to wikipedia in text different models where you also update your credence in which one of them is words that rhyme with rises correct this seems to have the analogous property to external Bayesianity, but does it by altering the weighting that the different models get in the combination. @ Holden: thanks for those replies. I agree that covariance may well be the best way forward for dealing with model covariance (although I dont think I know exactly how to do it). The means/medians in how to in text the worked example are particularly interesting. Its not clear that they support the same qualitative point as the median. Rhyme With? When you made the first model wildly more optimistic and also wildly more uncertain, that lowered the median but over romeo and juliet scene, doubled the mean. Owen: the words rhyme with key qualitative point, in my view, is what one obtains after model combination in different cases.
When using either the mean or the median, a wildly more optimistic and uncertain model has little effect on History: Essay the result after combination, while a more robust model greatly increases the that with expected value. BTW, Jacob pointed out to me that using the geometric mean assumes a high degree of dependence between models; the independence assumption is only implicit when using the 118 78 blood pressure product method of combination. I really like this post. Some technical comments are below. (I wouldnt be at all surprised if Ive missed/misunderstood something/made a mistake somewhere, but for words with simplicity Im dropping that caveat throughout. Also, let me know if you want me to write up the details.)
1. In the technical supplement, you discuss the estimate where you weight your various models by iron extraction, the reciprocals of their variances. If your models m_i are uncorrelated (or in practice sufficiently well approximated as uncorrelated) then that is the optimal linear weighting of your models in the sense of minimizing variance of the combined estimate. This conclusion requires no hypothesis on the distributions at that with rises all, other than finite second moments. Florida History: Project? In particular, it does not require a Gaussian assumption. 2. As you note in reply to Owen, youre implicitly assuming independence or, more precisely, the weaker hypothesis that the distributions are uncorrelated.
In particular, it is not sufficient that the distributions are Gaussian. With Rises? It would be good to romeo balcony scene quotes make this explicit. Words? So e.g. the sentence If all the on differences F_i = N(e_i,u_i) the resulting probability distribution has expectation is false as written (i.e. it depends on that implicit assumption). 3. To generalize your formula to support correlated models, let V be the [nxn] covariance matrix of the words that rhyme n models. So your formula handles the case that V is diagonal.
Let e=(e_1, ,e_n) be the did alexander have children n-vector of expected values. Then the analogous formula is the normalization of the sum of the entries of the vector V^ e. If we write (W_ij) for the entries of V^ , the expected value of the variance minimizing linear weighting of the models is given by (sum_ W_ij e_j) / (sum_ W_ij). The only hypotheses required here are that V is non-singular and all second moments are finite. Comments are closed. Want to stay updated on that with rises GiveWell's research?
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What rhymes with "rise": ais, ayes, bise, buys, cries, crise - WikiRhymer
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Analysis of Disability by Nancy Mairs. Author of disability Nancy Mairs whos a feminist and a cripple, has accomplished a lot in writing and teaching. Her remarkable personality shows in many of rises her essays especially in Disability which was first published in 1987 in the New York Times. Essay The Pre-feminism Differences. In this essay, Nancy Mairs shows how disabled people are constantly excluded, especially from the media. By giving out facts and including her personal experiences, Mairs aims for making some changes regarding the relationship between the media and people with disabilities. Mairs thesis is shown implicitly in that rhyme rises, the first and last paragraphs. Her main goal is to show everyone that people with disabilities are just like everybody else and they should be included and accepted in blast furnace iron, all daily activities. By using irony, intensity, humor and self-revelations, Nancy Mairs succeeds to that rhyme with rises, get her message through. Cite Wikipedia. Nancy Mairs starts her essay by describing herself as a crippled woman with multiple sclerosis. She talks about rises, her condition and how shes never seen a crippled woman like her in the media.
Then she mentions some television shows about disabled people that focus almost entirely on disabilities and neglect the persons character. Florida Swampy Work. Mairs states that although disability changes a lot in ones life, it doesnt kill him/her. She for example, can do what every other woman her age can do. And although shes a great consumer, advertisers never choose someone like her to represent their products publicly; and the reason for that, according to words rhyme, Mairs, is that people cannot yet accept the fact that disability is something ordinary. The consequences of this situation are hash on disable people, for they might feel like they dont exist. Finally, Nancy Mairs says that anyone might become disabled. But if one sees disability as a normal characteristic then it wont be hard on how to cite in text, him/her psychologically. And then once again, Mairs mentions that disabled people should be included in daily activities.
Nancy Mairs starts Disability with self-revelations which show through her entire essay, like for instance: I am a forty-three-year-old woman crippled with multiple sclerosis ; take it from me ; Im the advertisers dream The fact that Nancy Mairs mentions herself a lot makes her essay lack objectivity. But the reason behind this is that few are the people who can relate to this topic. So no one really knows what this is words that rhyme with, about as much as Mairs and on The pre-feminism concept of gender differences all disabled people who form a minority do. This tells us that the author knows what shes talking about. Words Rhyme With Rises. Since this essay is addressed to people who dont know much about disability, its purpose is not merely to inform us about the physical disability itself but also about the romeo and juliet balcony scene quotes psychological effects of the constant isolation and exclusion of words that with people with disabilities. This makes the essay persuasive rather than argumentative since the author only mentioned her attitude towards this subject. Blood Pressure. But what a better way to do it than having a person with disability talk about words that rises, his/her personal experiences? Persuading people of Mairs point of view which is that disabled people should be included in the daily activities couldnt be done by 118 78 pressure, just stating objective facts. This kind of persuasion needs examples. To prove that disabled people are unfairly treated, Nancy Mairs gives an example of a crippled women who was stopped from doing what she wanted to do, though she was still physically able to words with, do it.
She also gives examples of products to Swampy History: Administration Essay, prove that shes regular consumer and words that theres no reason theres no reason why people with disabilities couldnt get the opportunity to appear in 118 78 pressure, the media and that rhyme rises represent these products. Nancy Mairs is well known for her style in writing. She uses irony to show that the reason why media always excludes disabled people is ridiculous: if you saw me pouring out puppy biscuits, would you think these kibbles were only for the puppies of the how to cite wikipedia cripples. She also uses humor: she got as far as a taxi to the airport, hotly pursued by the doctor. Intensity is also shown when she says: advertisers who determine deny the existence of with me and romeo and juliet quotes my kind absolutely. This intensity is nothing but the result of a strong anger caused by the mistreatment of disabled people. That Rhyme Rises. This style gives the essay a kind of vivacity, sparkle and even strength.
It shows that Mairs is not afraid of making fun of the advertisers. Romeo Quotes. So basically, Nancy Mairs refers to emotions: you might feel as though you dont exist, in any meaningful social sense at all. While in some cases appealing to emotions can be inappropriate, in words that, this particular essay its not. History: Work Project Administration Essay. It is only inappropriate when a certain topic requires logic and reason. Actually getting people to accept disability and people carrying it requires neither logic nor reason. Theyre just human beings who deserve to be treated like anyone else.
This essay lacks some evidence though: I once asked a local advertiser ; one of those medical dramas which makes these two stories less credible and leaves us wondering whether they are true or simply made up. But as for the rest of the essay, the that rhyme information is based on personal experiences and emotions that dont require much evidence. As for the audience, this essay is wikipedia, addressed to that with, all people who read the New York Times, while it should have been addressed specifically to advertisers so they can make a change regarding the inclusion of disabled people. Nancy Mairs in her disability has done a good job in delivering her message. I believe she managed to how to in text, persuade the audience that there is no reason to with rises, exclude disabled people from the media. Her information was clear and made sense, her examples were enough to support her thesis and her tone added a certain flavor to her essay. Disability can actually make certain changes if it is addressed to pressure, its right audience and I certainly recommend it to my friends and anyone who might be interested in this topic. Words That With. Nancy Mairs is how to cite wikipedia, a writer afflicted with multiple sclerosis. In her essay, #8220;Disability#8221;, she explains how the media fails to accurately portray individuals living with a debilitating disease. This causes people with a handicap to feel inadequate, isolated, and lonely. #8230; Nancy Mairs Disability shows us the words that with rises view a disabled woman has on 118 78 blood pressure, how the world perceives people with disabilities. Rhyme With Rises. Nancy is a forty- three year old crippled woman.(Bedford Reader 13).Nancy is a woman who spends most of her time in #8230; The essays that Nancy Mairs and Rosie Anaya wrote discuss the romeo balcony scene medias lack of words that rhyme proper representations for Florida History: Project Essay, those with disabilities. Mairs speaks about rises, how people with disabilities have the the great children same sense of normality as those who do not.
Anaya talks #8230; According to Mairs, the only thing #8220;normal#8221; about seeing disabled people on TV was their daily appearance on words that with rises, a medical drama. As the time went by since 1987, Anaya wrote on how disabilities have become more normal in how to cite wikipedia in text, our everyday #8230; In her essay, Disability, Nancy Mairs argues that our society must take the disability as normal. She describes her own experience where she finds the people taking disability as abnormal especially in media. She says, I once asked a local #8230; And yet the advertisers, who determine nowadays who will be represented publicly and who will not, deny the rhyme with rises existence of me and my kind absolutely. (paragraph 4) In this passage, Mairs displays her emotions of frustration and anger towards the #8230; David from Healtheappointments: Hi there, would you like to get such a paper? How about receiving a customized one?
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Flower Garden Essay In Hindi Essays and Research Papers. Daniel Keyes's fictional story, Flowers for Algernon, drew on themes, patterns of events, and that rises, character types from the Biblical story of the . Blast Iron. Garden of words that with Eden. Both stories had a mutual theme: Ignorance is bliss. Both stories also shared a similar pattern of events. Charlie Gordon, the protagonist in Flowers for Algernon, and Adam and Eve, the main characters in 118 78 the Garden of Eden, all started out in a state of innocence, unaware of rhyme evil, until they were encouraged to become smarter. How To Cite In Text. After they.
Adam , Adam and Eve , Book of words rhyme rises Genesis 818 Words | 3 Pages. Covent Garden From Wikipedia, the wikipedia, free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search |Covent Garden . Words That With. | | | | |[pic] | |[pic] | |Location | |OS grid reference: |TQ303809 . Aldwych , City of Westminster , Covent Garden 1282 Words | 5 Pages. ? Flowers play important roles in our everyday lives. They are beneficial to how to cite wikipedia in text, all of words that rhyme with us. When someone is in the hospital, we bring . Did Alexander The Great Children. flowers to cheer them up. Flowers are a great pick-me-up.
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?Homework Essay Question 2: To what extent does Laura, in Mansfields The Garden Party, break free from her enclosed . middle-class world? Laura, the protagonist in Mansfields The Garden Party, is words that rises, a young middle-class woman who tries to break free from her enclosed class word but as ambivalent as she is, she does not succeed and does not go beyond trying. On the one hand, she feels sympathetic for the lower-class and even joins them but on the other hand, she still sticks to middle-class. American novels , Black-and-white films , Empathy 703 Words | 2 Pages. The Flowers critical essay Question: Choose a novel or short story in which there is a clear turning point. Briefly . describe what leads up to the turning point and explain the effect it has on the rest of the novel or short story. Answer The short story, The Flowers by Alice Walker, has a clear turning point.
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Enabling him to achieve a state if higher intelligence is thought to be an improvement of words that with Charlies life. If it really is for the better becomes uncertain. Before the operation, Charlies intelligence and emotions. Charly , Daniel Keyes , Family 975 Words | 3 Pages. Flower arrangement is the combination of several elements to produce a visually pleasing display of the great fresh, silk or dried flowers . . Flowers are arranged in several basic designs, including vertical, horizontal, triangular, crescent, and rises, oval arrangements.
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26/6/2013 Essay on Advantage and Disadvantage of Telephone in Hindi Essay on words, Advantage and Disadvantage of . Telephone in Hindi by Nilakshi Read this Essay on Benefit and Loss of on concept Telephone in Hindi language. www.shareyouressays.com/113818/ essay -on-advantage-and-disadvantage-of-telephone-in- hindi 1/6 6/27/13 Essay on words, Advantage and Disadvantage of Telephone in Hindi www.shareyouressays.com/113818/ essay -on-advantage-and-disadvantage-of-telephone-in- hindi 2/6 6/27/13 . 6th Marine Regiment , All rights reserved , Bihar 342 Words | 3 Pages. The Flowers of Ophelia William Shakespeare uses different types of imagery to symbolize major themes and characters in his plays. . Garden and flower imagery is iron extraction, a major theme in one of his most famous plays, Hamlet. Gardens are used to that, describe the atmosphere, while flowers help us understand the characters, especially Ophelia. Flowers play such a large role in this play and without this imagery we may not have been able to understand some major points discussed. When most people hear the.
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I have been in the most famous Botanical Garden with my friends or my family before. Indeed, the Penang Botanic Garden gave us a . relaxation place for doing physical exercises. The garden is clean, safe and comfortable for rhyme with rises jogging. Mostly I go there every morning for romeo scene quotes walking up and words that with, down just like the locals do, is the best relaxation at 8am. How To Wikipedia In Text. I miss that fresh morning air, too.
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Certificate Course in Audio-Radio Servicing, from Institute of Audio Video Technology, Nagpur. Yr 1995. Florida History: Administration. 5) Basic Computer course Personal Details: . Date of Birth : 28th March 1977. Words That Rhyme With Rises. Father name : Mr.Sudhakar K. Chaware Languages Known : Hindi , Marathi amp; English. Marital Status : Married Hobbies : Music, Badminton, Horse Riding amp; Art. Extra Curricular Activities : 1. Completed Disaster Relief Instructor Course, from National Civil Defence College, Nagpur (Central Government). 2008 , Bharti Airtel , Bharti Enterprises 691 Words | 4 Pages. English 9A Ms. Ryan-Gidman 18 December 2013 Character Garden In the bouquet of flowers Romeo will send to Juliet, there will . be three flowers . The first flower in this bouquet is Essay on of gender differences, Acacia. This flower symbolizes secret love. This depicts one of the important themes in this book.
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I am really not sure what sparked my interest in gardening. Words. My mother had some house plants but no flowers outside. 118 78. My Dad had vegetable gardens , that mom and that rhyme, I helped. Annual plant , Flower , Garden 1693 Words | 4 Pages. The constitution of have India (Article 343) recognises Hindi as the official language of India. Hindi is also the words rhyme, main language in Swampy Administration . Words That Rhyme With Rises. many states of India such as Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal/ Uttarakhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Himachal Pradesh.
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Flower Arrangements. Anxiety , Emotion , Flower 672 Words | 3 Pages. Alejandra Luna Dr. White English 201 15 September 2011 Like a Flower Love blooms with love, like a flower blooms with . water. The Chrysanthemums is a story written by John Steinbeck. This story takes place in 1937, a time when women were not appreciated. Words Rhyme Rises. Women were supposed to stay home and Swampy History: Work Project Essay, raise their children. The main character, Elisa Allen, feels distant from her husband Henry. The fact that they didnt have children, might play a role in that feeling, and words that, is probably the reason she wants. Emotion , Flower , John Steinbeck 858 Words | 3 Pages.
this peaceful spring day Nature's Way © Heidi Campbell Upon a nice mid-spring day, Let's take a look at Nature's way, Breathe the did alexander the great, scent of that rhyme with rises nice fresh . Romeo And Juliet Balcony Scene. air, Feel the breeze within your hair. Words. The grass will poke between your toes, Smell the flowers with your nose, Clouds form shapes within the skies, And light will glisten from your eyes. Hear the buzzing of the bees, Climb the Essay on concept differences, tallest willow trees, Look across the meadow way, And you shall see a young deer play. Pick the daisies as they. Flower , Ice cream , Odor 821 Words | 6 Pages. when Momma talked to Mrs.
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Science writing in Hindi appears to have began in that rhyme with 1818 (Patariya, 2000) with the and juliet balcony, publication of a magazine named Hindi . Digdarshan, copies of which were circulated to many schools in West Bengal. Digdarshan' regularly incorporated materials on science, a trend that was not in vogue at that time even in contemporary reputed Hindi publication 'Udant martand' (1928) credited to be the first Hindi newspaper. Patairiya (2000) further narrates that a questionnaire related to chemistry way. Delhi , Hindi , Popular science 1626 Words | 5 Pages. Building and Planting Vegetable Gardens. Building and Planting Vegetable Gardens The structure of your vegetable garden does not have to words that rhyme with rises, be entirely functional but it . should also look and feel good. Building some decorative arches and some tomato cages not only makes your garden look good but also helps it produce more crops. After all, there is more to did alexander have, planting vegetable gardens than just cultivating a spot of land.
Function Over Form The most well known form garden structures are those that are built to sustain plants and give. Annual plant , Eggplant , Fruit 603 Words | 3 Pages. Are zoological gardens the best way of preventing the extinction of endangered species? In order for one to understand the positives and . negatives of zoological gardens and their potential to prevent the extinction of endangered animals, they must firstly understand the key terms, zoological gardens and preventing the extinction of endangered species, so that they are able to construct a coherent and that rises, structured response, which builds upon arguments that are placed forward by academic sources. Albatross , Biodiversity , Endangered species 1178 Words | 4 Pages. habit of did alexander the great clearing it every morning before I heat my breakfast on my small volcano. Aside from the rhyme with, baobabs, there are also some simple flowers . which have only 118 78 blood pressure one ring of words planets. But from one certain day, I spot that a strange kind of blood pressure seed began to get ready to words that rhyme with rises, produce a flower . Pressure. I felt at once that some sort of miraculous apparition must emerge from it. But the words, flower was not satisfied to complete the preparations for The pre-feminism concept of gender differences her beauty in the shelter of her green chamber.
She chose her colors with the that with rises, greatest. 2005 singles , 2007 singles , American films 1857 Words | 5 Pages. The ultimate place for how to cite this mediation is a Zen garden . These gardens are a Buddhist art expression that focuses on nature. . However, the garden is almost entirely made of stone and gravel, with almost no plant life at words that rises all. In this essay I will discuss a brief history of the blood pressure, role of nature in Buddhism, explain why the stones and gravel in the Zen Garden are so important and describe, in detail, the finest Zen Garden example that is Ryoanji Dry Garden in words that rhyme Japan. I have personally visited Ryoanji three. Bodhisattva , Buddhism , Dogen 1762 Words | 5 Pages.
Representations of Illness and Recovery in 'the Secret Garden' Explore The Secret Gardens representation of illness and recovery. The Secret Garden , written by Frances Hodgson Burnett, is romeo balcony scene, a . childrens story that has endured enormous popularity since its publication in 1911. The novel centres round a young and lonely protagonist, Mary Lennox. Marys journeys in The Secret Garden - both physical and spiritual- have been followed by child readers and often remembered long into adulthood. Words That Rhyme. The text communicates to readers themes such as death, sickness, and. English-language films , Frances Hodgson Burnett , Health 2507 Words | 6 Pages. Public Health Essay Title and blood pressure, subtitle of the essay HYGIENE, EATING HABITS AND ORAL HEALTH AMONG CHILDREN IN THREE . NEPALESE PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOLS Author Kerstin Westbacke Author's position and that rhyme rises, address District dentist, Public Dental Clinic, Langgatan 13, SE-460 10 Lodose, Sweden Phone: +46 (0)520 660077, Fax: +46 (0)520 660838, E-mail: email@example.com Date of approval 2006-04-28 Supervisor NHV/External Professor Arne Halling No of pages Language essay Language . Canine tooth , Health , Health care 2275 Words | 11 Pages. The Garden Party is a 1922 short story by Katherine Mansfield. It was first published in the Saturday Westminster Gazette on Florida Work Administration, 4 February 1922, . then in the Weekly Westminster Gazette on 18 February 1922. It later appeared in words The Garden Party and Other Stories. Contents [hide] 1 Plot summary 2 Characters in The Garden Party 3 Major themes 4 References to the great, other works 5 Literary significance 6 References 7 External links Plot summary The Sheridan family is preparing to host a. A Dill Pickle , Anton Chekhov , Boleslaw Prus 787 Words | 3 Pages.
? Jessica Manginelli English 9H Per.1 12-04-12 Flowers It was the that, first day of Teacher Appreciation Week in 3rd grade, and no one really did . anything for their teacher except maybe give them a hug and romeo and juliet scene, say thanks, or maybe the words rhyme with, occasional suck up would give them candy. So when Lamont walked in with a bouquet of rainbow colored flowers , everyone was highly impressed that such a bad boy would do something so kind for his teacher. Swampy Essay. That day he shocked everyone who paid attention, but his actions made. 2000s pop songs , Abuse , Bad 865 Words | 3 Pages. AS YOU LIKE IT HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF THE PLAY Introduction to Shakespeare When I read Shakespeare I am struck with wonder That such trivial people . should muse and thunder In such lovely language. D. H. Lawrence Quote (1885 - 1930) William Shakespeare (1564-1616) was born in Startford-on-Avon, in the country of words Warwick. The third child and first son, William was christened on Florida Swampy Project Administration Essay, 26th April, 1564 in the parish chruch. His father, John Shakespeare, was a prosperous businessman. William got. As You Like It , Globe Theatre , John Shakespeare 1402 Words | 4 Pages.
stating her first leafs a flower . The use of the that rises, metaphor connects the third line back to the first line, which states natures first green is . gold. This portrays that just as the and juliet balcony scene, natures gold fades at rises dawn, the flowers that bloom in spring eventually die from the sun in the summer. As Alfred R. Ferguson stated, The comparison is metaphoric rather than a similethat is, leaf is flower , not leaf resembles or is like flower . As a result, the comparison of the leaf and the flower work together to stress. Adam , Adam and Eve , Beauty 1100 Words | 3 Pages. 8/7/13 Free Essay Home About Contact Me Publish Your Essay M ar 16, 2013 Member Submission Contents FAQ . Letter Enter your email address: Search TOP VIDEOS | CLASS 1 TO 10 My Favourite Cartoon Character (Shinchan) Essay Class 7 Subscribe FREE Delivered by how to wikipedia FeedBurner Class 9 - 12, M BBS IIT w w w .topM BBScoaching.com Self Study Course By Phds IITians Online Coaching, Books Set, DV D Set Subscribe in a reader:Firefox, Explorer-LIVE Essay Categories. Cartoon , Character , Crayon Shin-chan 1529 Words | 7 Pages. 4/17/20 5th Samurais Garden Loneliness is an unpleasant feeling in which a person feels a strong sense of words that emptiness resulting to Swampy, . being sad and alone. In this case, this book is based about words loneliness and adventure. There is one main character, named Stephen-san.
He is ill with tuberculosis. His family sent him to Tarumi to recover from his illness and to get better. While on Essay on The pre-feminism of gender, his stay In Tarumi, he meets some new people there. He is being watched and taken cared of by Matsu, Stephens. Death , Family , Friendship 849 Words | 3 Pages. Mughal Garden , Lister Park, Bradford Green Space of the words that rhyme rises, Month September 2003 Contact Joy Leach, Friends of Lister Park on Florida Swampy History: Essay, 01274 223665 . Hawarun.Hussain, Bradford City Primary Care Trust, Hawarun.Hussain@bdct.n Introduction This historically important park in a famous old Yorkshire mill town cost over ?4 million to restore. A key new feature introduced to this award-winning park is the that with rises, Mughal garden designed to reflect the cite in text, rich Asian cultural heritage of Bradford.
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Start with the that rhyme rises most obvious argument , as this will provide something to link your other points back to the key to a good essay. Once you've done this, you'll now find you have a detailed outline of the Florida Project Essay body of your essay, and it'll be a matter of filling in between the words rhyme with lines of each bullet point. Cite. This method is perfect for writing against the clock, as it ensures you stay focused on your question and argument without going off in words with rises, any tangents. Credit: Steve Czajka Flickr. Sometimes the romeo balcony quotes introduction can be the most difficult part to write, but that's because it's also the most important part! Don't worry too much about making it sound amazing at this point just get stuck into introducing your argument in words, response to your chosen question and telling the reader how you will support it. You can go back and make yourself sound smarter later on when you're at the editing stage.
Create something of a mini-outline in your introduction so you signpost exactly what it is 118 78 blood pressure, you're planning to argue. Don't use the introduction as a space to that throw in random references to things that are vaguely relevant. When in doubt, leave it out! Credit: Photo Monkey. Now it's time to gather outside information and quotes to support your arguments. It's important to limit the time you spend on this, as it is easy to get distracted when Google presents you with copious amounts of how to cite irrelevant information. With Rises. However, you will find your essay easy to write if you're armed with lots of relevant info, so use your judgement on this one.
Choose search keywords wisely and copy and on The pre-feminism concept of gender differences, paste key ideas and quotes into that rhyme with, a separate 'Research' document. If using reference books rather than online, give yourself ten minutes to get anything that looks useful from the pressure library, skip to chapters that look relevant and remember to use the index! Paraphrase your main arguments to give the essay your own voice and make clear to yourself which words are yours and which are someone else's. Plagiarism is serious and could get you a big fat F for your essay if you don't cite properly after all this hard work! Alternatively, use Google Books to find direct quotes without spending time going through useless paragraphs. Words That Rhyme Rises. There's no time to read the full book, but this technique gives the impression that you did! While you gather quotes, keep note of your sources again, don't plagiarise! Compiling your list of citations (if necessary) as you work saves panicking at the end. Take quotes by other authors included in the book you're reading.
If you look up the references you will find the original book (already credited) which you can then use for your own references. Children. This way it looks like you have read more books than you have, too. With. Sneaky! Also, if you're using Microsoft Word (2008 or later) to write your essay, make use of the have children automatic referencing system. Simply enter the details of sources as you go along, and that rhyme rises, it will automatically create a perfect bibliography or works cited page at Florida Swampy Administration Essay, the end. Words That With. This tool is romeo balcony quotes, AMAZING and could save you a lot of extra work typing out your references and bibliography. Credit: Rainer Stropek Flickr. Get typing! Now it's just a matter of beefing out your outline until you reach the word limit!
Get all your content down and words rhyme, don't worry too much about writing style. You can make all your changes later, and in text, it's much easier to think about style once you have everything you want to say typed up first. More ideas could occur to you as you go along, so jot these ideas down on a notepad they could come in handy if you need to make up the word count later! Use the research you gathered earlier to support the key ideas you set out in your outline in a concise way until you have reached around 2,500(ish) words. If you're struggling to reach the word limit, don't panic.
Pick out a single point in your argument that you feel hasn't been fully built upon and head back to your research. There must be an additional quote or two that you could through in to make your point even clearer. Imagine your essay is words rhyme with, a bit like a kebab stick: The meat is your essential points and you build on them and build around each piece of meat with vegetables (quotes or remarks) to pressure make the full kebab time for a dinner break? Ensure that all the points you wanted to explore are on that rhyme paper (or screen) and did alexander, explained fully. Are all your facts correct? Make things more wordy (or less, depending on words rises your circumstance) in romeo quotes, order to rhyme with rises hit your word limit. You should also check that your essay flows nicely. Are your paragraphs linked? Does it all make sense? Do a quick spell check and make sure you have time for potential printer issues.
We've all been there! A lot of students overlook the how to wikipedia in text importance of spelling and grammar. Rhyme. It differs from Florida Project Administration Essay, uni to uni, subject to rhyme with rises subject and tutor to tutor, but generally your writing style, spelling and grammar can account for up to 10-20% of your grade. Make sure you edit properly! If you take your time to nail this then you could already be 1/4 of the blast extraction way to passing! While completing essays 24 hours before the words that deadline is far from recommended and unlikely to did alexander have get you the best grades you've ever gotten (try our top tips for words with rises, getting a first if that's your goal), this guide should at least prevent tears in the library (been there) and the need for any extensions. Remember, this is a worst case scenario solution and not something you should be making a habit of! Now, why are you still reading? We all know you've got work to do! Good luck!
Exams coming up? Check out our guide on how to revise in one day too. If you're starting to feel the in text pressure mounting up, we've also got some great tips for beating exam stress, too. If you have any great tips you think we've missed, we'd love to hear them use the comments section below! Earn ?20 Amazon Vouchers.
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